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Serie B

Referee: L Zufferli

Sampdoria

U U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Padova

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Padova

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 27%

25%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

42%

Both score Ø 59%

63%

54%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,50 xG 0,23

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

12 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sampdoria 14. · Padova 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	24	15	5	4	+24	+20.7	50
2	Frosinone	24	14	7	3	+22	+5.2	49
3	Monza	24	14	6	4	+17	+10.0	48
4	Palermo	24	12	9	3	+20	+8.0	45
5	Catanzaro	24	10	8	6	+6	-0.2	38
6	Juve Stabia	24	9	11	4	+2	+0.7	38
7	Modena	24	10	7	7	+12	+7.3	37
8	Cesena	24	11	4	9	+2	+6.6	37
9	Sudtirol	24	6	12	6	+1	-4.4	30
10	Carrarese	24	7	9	8	-2	-7.1	30
11	Padova	24	7	8	9	-5	-4.6	29
12	Empoli	24	7	7	10	-4	+0.1	28
13	Avellino	24	7	7	10	-11	-13.6	28
14	Sampdoria	24	6	8	10	-6	-0.4	26
15	Virtus Entella	24	5	10	9	-8	-6.1	25
16	Reggiana	24	6	6	12	-8	-2.8	24
17	Mantova	24	6	5	13	-14	-2.7	23
18	Spezia	24	5	7	12	-10	+1.8	22
19	Bari	24	4	9	11	-17	-13.0	21
20	Pescara	24	2	9	13	-21	-5.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	12	10	0	2	+17	+10.6	30
2	Monza	12	9	2	1	+13	+7.4	29
3	Palermo	12	8	3	1	+14	+5.4	27
4	Juve Stabia	12	6	6	0	+8	+1.9	24
5	Frosinone	11	7	2	2	+13	+3.2	23
6	Catanzaro	12	6	5	1	+7	+1.7	23
7	Virtus Entella	12	5	6	1	+6	-1.4	21
8	Carrarese	12	5	5	2	+7	+2.2	20
9	Sampdoria	12	5	4	3	+3	+1.8	19
10	Modena	12	5	3	4	+6	-0.6	18
11	Cesena	11	5	3	3	+5	+5.8	18
12	Sudtirol	12	5	3	4	+4	-2.9	18
13	Avellino	12	5	3	4	-3	-8.1	18
14	Empoli	13	3	7	3	+4	+3.4	16
15	Reggiana	12	4	4	4	+1	-1.7	16
16	Padova	12	3	5	4	-1	-4.7	14
17	Bari	12	3	5	4	-3	-6.8	14
18	Mantova	12	4	2	6	-7	+0.3	14
19	Spezia	12	3	4	5	-5	-0.8	13
20	Pescara	13	2	5	6	-5	-3.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	13	7	5	1	+9	+2.0	26
2	Venezia	12	5	5	2	+7	+10.1	20
3	Modena	12	5	4	3	+6	+7.9	19
4	Monza	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.5	19
5	Cesena	13	6	1	6	-3	+0.8	19
6	Palermo	12	4	6	2	+6	+2.6	18
7	Catanzaro	12	4	3	5	-1	-1.9	15
8	Padova	12	4	3	5	-4	+0.1	15
9	Juve Stabia	12	3	5	4	-6	-1.2	14
10	Sudtirol	12	1	9	2	-3	-1.5	12
11	Empoli	11	4	0	7	-8	-3.4	12
12	Avellino	12	2	4	6	-8	-5.5	10
13	Carrarese	12	2	4	6	-9	-9.2	10
14	Spezia	12	2	3	7	-5	+2.6	9
15	Mantova	12	2	3	7	-7	-2.9	9
16	Reggiana	12	2	2	8	-9	-1.1	8
17	Sampdoria	12	1	4	7	-9	-2.2	7
18	Bari	12	1	4	7	-14	-6.2	7
19	Virtus Entella	12	0	4	8	-14	-4.7	4
20	Pescara	11	0	4	7	-16	-1.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.