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Championship

Referee: S Allison

Watford

U U S T S

1–2

Full-time

Cardiff

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

18%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

64%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

59%

41%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,66 xG 1,49

73% Possession 27%

9 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 6. · Cardiff 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	23	14	6	3	+28	+24.7	48
2	Burnley	23	13	8	2	+21	+7.2	47
3	Sheffield United	22	13	6	3	+17	+9.5	45
4	Sunderland	21	12	7	2	+17	+4.3	43
5	Blackburn	22	11	5	6	+7	+0.7	38
6	Watford	22	11	4	7	+3	-2.7	37
7	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+10	+13.1	36
8	West Brom	24	8	12	4	+9	+4.0	36
9	Sheffield Weds	24	9	6	9	-4	-4.7	33
10	Norwich	24	7	9	8	+4	+7.0	30
11	Swansea	23	8	6	9	+3	+0.5	30
12	Bristol City	22	7	9	6	+0	+1.4	30
13	Preston	24	6	11	7	-4	-2.2	29
14	Millwall	22	7	7	8	+2	+6.1	28
15	Derby	23	7	6	10	+0	-1.0	27
16	Coventry	22	7	5	10	-2	+13.6	26
17	QPR	24	5	11	8	-8	-7.3	26
18	Luton	23	7	4	12	-14	-2.4	25
19	Stoke	23	5	7	11	-9	-12.1	22
20	Oxford	22	5	6	11	-15	-13.3	21
21	Portsmouth	21	4	8	9	-11	-9.4	20
22	Hull	23	4	7	12	-11	-3.5	19
23	Cardiff	22	4	6	12	-16	-10.4	18
24	Plymouth	22	4	6	12	-27	-23.2	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	12	10	1	1	+23	+16.9	31
2	Watford	11	9	2	0	+11	+2.7	29
3	Sheffield United	11	8	2	1	+11	+9.9	26
4	Sunderland	10	7	3	0	+12	+5.8	24
5	Burnley	11	6	5	0	+11	+5.0	23
6	Blackburn	11	7	2	2	+8	+3.9	23
7	Middlesbrough	12	6	3	3	+5	+7.7	21
8	Preston	13	5	6	2	+4	+2.9	21
9	Luton	12	6	3	3	+3	+3.2	21
10	Norwich	12	5	5	2	+12	+8.9	20
11	Derby	11	6	2	3	+9	+5.9	20
12	Millwall	12	6	2	4	+5	+7.0	20
13	Oxford	12	5	4	3	+0	-3.9	19
14	West Brom	11	4	6	1	+5	+3.9	18
15	Coventry	11	5	2	4	+6	+12.3	17
16	Bristol City	10	4	5	1	+6	+3.5	17
17	Swansea	11	4	4	3	+5	+7.3	16
18	Plymouth	10	4	4	2	+3	-1.4	16
19	Sheffield Weds	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
20	Stoke	12	3	5	4	+0	-3.4	14
21	QPR	12	3	5	4	-2	+3.4	14
22	Portsmouth	10	3	4	3	+2	+0.8	13
23	Cardiff	11	4	0	7	-5	-3.0	12
24	Hull	12	2	5	5	-3	+1.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	12	7	3	2	+10	+2.2	24
2	Sheffield United	11	5	4	2	+6	-0.4	19
3	Sunderland	11	5	4	2	+5	-1.5	19
4	West Brom	13	4	6	3	+4	+0.1	18
5	Leeds	11	4	5	2	+5	+7.7	17
6	Sheffield Weds	12	5	2	5	-4	-5.6	17
7	Middlesbrough	11	4	3	4	+5	+5.4	15
8	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	-1	-3.3	15
9	Swansea	12	4	2	6	-2	-6.8	14
10	Bristol City	12	3	4	5	-6	-2.2	13
11	QPR	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.7	12
12	Norwich	12	2	4	6	-8	-1.9	10
13	Coventry	11	2	3	6	-8	+1.3	9
14	Millwall	10	1	5	4	-3	-0.9	8
15	Watford	11	2	2	7	-8	-5.4	8
16	Preston	11	1	5	5	-8	-5.1	8
17	Hull	11	2	2	7	-8	-5.3	8
18	Stoke	11	2	2	7	-9	-8.7	8
19	Derby	12	1	4	7	-9	-6.9	7
20	Portsmouth	11	1	4	6	-13	-10.3	7
21	Cardiff	11	0	6	5	-11	-7.3	6
22	Luton	11	1	1	9	-17	-5.6	4
23	Oxford	10	0	2	8	-15	-9.5	2
24	Plymouth	12	0	2	10	-30	-21.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.