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DFB-Pokal
Referee: C Dingert
RB Leipzig
S S U S S
3–1
Full-time
Hoffenheim
T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
83%
0%
Points per game
2,7
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
83%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,8
4,3
Scored
2,8
1,3
Conceded
1,0
3,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — DFB-Pokal · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
6,0
4,0
Scored
6,0
3,5
Conceded
0,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+6,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

65% Possession 35%
11 Shots 3
6 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 0
5 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match RB Leipzig 3. · Hoffenheim 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Stuttgart 3 3 0 0 +8 9
2 Union Berlin 3 3 0 0 +4 9
3 RB Leipzig 2 2 0 0 +12 6
4 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 0 +8 6
5 Hoffenheim 2 2 0 0 +6 6
6 Fortuna Dusseldorf 2 2 0 0 +6 6
7 Mainz 2 2 0 0 +6 6
8 Ein Frankfurt 2 2 0 0 +6 6
9 Dortmund 2 2 0 0 +5 6
10 Darmstadt 2 2 0 0 +4 6
11 Bochum 2 2 0 0 +4 6
12 Nurnberg 2 2 0 0 +3 6
13 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 +2 6
14 Wolfsburg 3 2 0 1 +1 6
15 Paderborn 3 1 1 1 +9 4
16 Karlsruhe 2 1 1 0 +8 4
17 Sandhausen 2 1 1 0 +4 4
18 Werder Bremen 2 1 1 0 +1 4
19 M'gladbach 2 1 0 1 +7 3
20 Augsburg 2 1 0 1 +1 3
21 Schalke 04 2 1 0 1 +1 3
22 Hannover 2 1 0 1 +1 3
23 Bielefeld 2 1 0 1 +0 3
24 St Pauli 2 1 0 1 +0 3
25 Elversberg 2 1 0 1 +0 3
26 Heidenheim 2 1 0 1 +0 3
27 Stuttgarter Kickers 2 1 0 1 +0 3
28 Hamburg 2 1 0 1 -2 3
29 VfB Lubeck 2 1 0 1 -2 3
30 Hertha 1 0 1 0 +0 1
31 FC Koln 1 0 1 0 +0 1
32 Holstein Kiel 1 0 1 0 +0 1
33 Braunschweig 2 0 1 1 -1 1
34 Waldhof Mannheim 2 0 1 1 -1 1
35 Regensburg 2 0 1 1 -3 1
36 Leverkusen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Straelen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 Kaiserslautern 1 0 0 1 -1 0
39 Cottbus 1 0 0 1 -1 0
40 Chemnitzer FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
41 Dresden 1 0 0 1 -1 0
42 Hansa Rostock 1 0 0 1 -1 0
43 Carl Zeiss Jena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
44 Bayreuth 1 0 0 1 -2 0
45 Kaan-Marienborn 1 0 0 1 -2 0
46 Illertissen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
47 Greuther Furth 1 0 0 1 -2 0
48 SV Rodinghausen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
49 Kickers Offenbach 1 0 0 1 -3 0
50 FC Ingolstadt 04 1 0 0 1 -3 0
51 Erzgebirge Aue 1 0 0 1 -3 0
52 TSV 1860 Munich 1 0 0 1 -3 0
53 Viktoria Berlin 1 0 0 1 -3 0
54 Schott Mainz 1 0 0 1 -3 0
55 Magdeburg 1 0 0 1 -4 0
56 Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 1 0 0 1 -4 0
57 BW Lohne 1 0 0 1 -4 0
58 Bremer Sv 1 0 0 1 -5 0
59 FC Viktoria Koln 1 0 0 1 -5 0
60 FV Engers 07 1 0 0 1 -6 0
61 Oberachern 1 0 0 1 -8 0
62 Neustrelitz 1 0 0 1 -8 0
63 Teutonia Ottensen 1 0 0 1 -8 0
64 Einheit Wernigerode 1 0 0 1 -10 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

RB Leipzig Hoffenheim
1–0 E. Forsberg
K. Laimer
8′
34′
🟨 Angeliño
40′
🟨 Umut Tohumcu
2–0 K. Laimer
41′
Half-time 2–0
B. Henrichs 🔁
↦ J. Gvardiol
46′
46′
🔁 T. Delaney
↦ K. Akpoguma
57′
🔁 F. Becker
↦ C. Baumgartner
58′
🟨 Stanley N'Soki
68′
🔁 K. Dolberg
↦ U. Tohumcu
A. Haidara 🔁
↦ E. Forsberg
73′
76′
K. Dolberg 2–1
Angeliño
K. Kampl 🔁
↦ X. Schlager
79′
Y. Poulsen 🔁
↦ André Silva
79′
79′
🔁 J. Che
↦ I. Bebou
79′
🔁 T. Bischof
↦ A. Kramarić
3–1 T. Werner
Y. Poulsen
83′
86′
🟨 Stanley N'Soki
86′
🟥 Stanley N'Soki
L. Klostermann 🔁
↦ T. Werner
89′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-2-2
13 Ø. Nyland G
2 M. Simakan D
4 W. Orbán D
32 J. Gvardiol D
23 M. Halstenberg D
27 K. Laimer M
24 X. Schlager M
17 D. Szoboszlai M
10 E. Forsberg M
19 André Silva F
11 T. Werner F
Bench (8)
39 B. Henrichs
8 A. Haidara
44 K. Kampl
9 Y. Poulsen
16 L. Klostermann
21 J. Blaswich
25 S. Ba
22 D. Raum

Coach: M. Rose

Hoffenheim

5-4-1
1 O. Baumann G
25 K. Akpoguma D
5 O. Kabak D
23 J. Brooks D
34 S. Nsoki D
11 Angeliño D
9 I. Bebou M
14 C. Baumgartner M
40 U. Tohumcu M
27 A. Kramarić M
10 M. Dabbur F
Bench (9)
17 T. Delaney
20 F. Becker
19 K. Dolberg
24 J. Che
39 T. Bischof
37 L. Philipp
16 S. Rudy
4 E. Bičakčić
26 Eduardo Quaresma

Coach: A. Breitenreiter

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Dingert · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.