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Ligue 1
Referee: F Letexier
Lens
U T S U T
1–1
Full-time
Lille
S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 54%
56%
52%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
44%
56%
Both score Ø 60%
56%
64%
Average goals
2,4
3,1
Scored
1,6
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,87 xG 1,57
38% Possession 62%
10 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
10 Corners 3
4 Offside 3
18 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lens 4. · Lille 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 25 19 3 3 +39 +2.0 60
2 Marseille 25 16 4 5 +23 +1.8 52
3 Monaco 25 15 5 5 +19 +2.4 50
4 Lens 25 14 8 3 +19 +4.2 50
5 Rennes 25 14 4 7 +17 +0.2 46
6 Lille 25 13 5 7 +13 +4.8 44
7 Nice 26 11 9 6 +12 +2.5 42
8 Lorient 25 11 6 8 +2 -1.0 39
9 Lyon 25 11 5 9 +11 +1.3 38
10 Reims 25 8 13 4 +7 +7.6 37
11 Toulouse 25 9 5 11 -4 +0.2 32
12 Clermont 25 8 7 10 -9 -3.5 31
13 Nantes 25 6 10 9 -5 -1.7 28
14 Montpellier 25 8 3 14 -10 -3.0 27
15 Strasbourg 25 4 10 11 -13 -3.2 22
16 Auxerre 26 5 7 14 -26 +2.2 22
17 Ajaccio 25 6 3 16 -26 +0.9 21
18 Brest 25 4 8 13 -16 -5.3 20
19 Troyes 25 4 7 14 -21 -8.2 19
20 Angers 25 2 4 19 -32 -4.2 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lens Lille
2′
🟨 André Gomes
13′
🔁 Alexsandro Ribeiro
↦ Tiago Djaló
Seko Fofana 🟨
23′
27′
🟨 José Fonte
0–1 José Fonte ⚽
own goal
41′
44′
🟨 Benjamin André
Half-time 0–1
D. Machado 🔁
↦ A. Fulgini
68′
69′
⚽ J. David 0–2
J. Bamba
70′
🔁 E. Zhegrova
↦ André Gomes
David Costa 🔁
↦ F. Sotoca
76′
86′
🔁 M. Bayo
↦ J. David
87′
🔁 C. Baleba
↦ A. Gomes
Jonathan Gradit 🟨
91′
91′
🟨 Alexsandro Ribeiro
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Lens

4-2-3-1
30 B. Samba G
29 P. Frankowski D
24 J. Gradit D
4 K. Danso D
21 M. Haïdara D
26 S. Abdul Samed M
8 S. Fofana M
7 F. Sotoca M
28 A. Thomasson M
20 A. Fulgini M
11 L. Openda F
Bench (9)
3 D. Machado
10 David Costa
23 I. Boura
36 R. Labeau Lascary
16 J. Leca
6 J. Onana
35 A. Louveau
25 J. Le Cardinal
13 Ł. Poręba

Coach: F. Haise

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
5 G. Gudmundsson D
6 José Fonte D
3 Tiago Djaló D
22 T. Weah D
21 B. André M
28 André Gomes M
10 R. Cabella M
20 A. Gomes M
7 J. Bamba M
9 J. David F
Bench (9)
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro
23 E. Zhegrova
27 M. Bayo
35 C. Baleba
15 L. Yoro
26 A. Virginius
38 S. Ramet
25 B. Costil
8 J. Martin

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,39
U ✓
3,39
B
2,99
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5
1,96
U2,5 ✓
1,86
U3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.