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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Luton

T U T S U

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

This season — Championship · 32/34 matches

Win Ø 38%

44%

32%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

38%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

44%

59%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 7. · Swansea 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	34	22	10	2	+40	76
2	Sheffield United	34	19	7	8	+24	64
3	Blackburn	35	18	4	13	+1	58
4	Middlesbrough	33	17	6	10	+17	57
5	Millwall	34	15	9	10	+8	54
6	Norwich	34	15	7	12	+11	52
7	Luton	32	14	10	8	+8	52
8	Watford	34	13	11	10	+3	50
9	Sunderland	33	13	9	11	+11	48
10	West Brom	34	13	9	12	+6	48
11	Preston	34	12	10	12	-8	46
12	Coventry	32	12	9	11	+2	45
13	Hull	35	12	9	14	-8	45
14	Bristol City	34	11	11	12	+0	44
15	Reading	33	13	5	15	-10	44
16	Swansea	34	11	10	13	-4	43
17	Stoke	34	11	7	16	-2	40
18	QPR	34	10	9	15	-14	39
19	Birmingham	34	10	8	16	-8	38
20	Cardiff	35	10	8	17	-11	38
21	Rotherham	34	8	13	13	-9	37
22	Huddersfield	33	8	7	18	-17	31
23	Blackpool	34	7	10	17	-18	31
24	Wigan	33	7	10	16	-22	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	18	13	5	0	+27	44
2	Blackburn	17	12	1	4	+10	37
3	Sheffield United	17	11	3	3	+19	36
4	Reading	16	10	3	3	+9	33
5	Middlesbrough	16	9	5	2	+13	32
6	Millwall	16	9	5	2	+13	32
7	West Brom	17	8	5	4	+9	29
8	Watford	16	8	4	4	+8	28
9	Norwich	18	8	4	6	+6	28
10	Coventry	16	8	4	4	+6	28
11	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	+4	26
12	Hull	18	7	4	7	-3	25
13	Swansea	17	7	3	7	+2	24
14	Rotherham	16	6	5	5	+6	23
15	Sunderland	16	6	5	5	+4	23
16	Cardiff	18	6	5	7	-1	23
17	Luton	16	5	7	4	+3	22
18	Huddersfield	16	6	3	7	+0	21
19	Birmingham	18	5	5	8	-1	20
20	Stoke	17	5	4	8	+1	19
21	QPR	17	5	4	8	-7	19
22	Preston	18	4	6	8	-10	18
23	Blackpool	16	4	5	7	-4	17
24	Wigan	17	3	4	10	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	16	9	5	2	+13	32
2	Luton	16	9	3	4	+5	30
3	Sheffield United	17	8	4	5	+5	28
4	Preston	16	8	4	4	+2	28
5	Sunderland	17	7	4	6	+7	25
6	Middlesbrough	17	8	1	8	+4	25
7	Norwich	16	7	3	6	+5	24
8	Millwall	18	6	4	8	-5	22
9	Watford	18	5	7	6	-5	22
10	Stoke	17	6	3	8	-3	21
11	Blackburn	18	6	3	9	-9	21
12	Hull	17	5	5	7	-5	20
13	QPR	17	5	5	7	-7	20
14	West Brom	17	5	4	8	-3	19
15	Swansea	17	4	7	6	-6	19
16	Bristol City	16	4	6	6	-4	18
17	Wigan	16	4	6	6	-4	18
18	Birmingham	16	5	3	8	-7	18
19	Coventry	16	4	5	7	-4	17
20	Cardiff	17	4	3	10	-10	15
21	Blackpool	18	3	5	10	-14	14
22	Rotherham	18	2	8	8	-15	14
23	Reading	17	3	2	12	-19	11
24	Huddersfield	17	2	4	11	-17	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.