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Ligue 1

Referee: W Delajod

Paris SG

S S T T T

4–3

Full-time

Lille

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 63%

74%

52%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

65%

52%

Both score Ø 57%

52%

61%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

2,4

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,04 xG 2,46

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 16

10 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Lille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	17	3	3	+35	+2.1	54
2	Marseille	23	15	4	4	+25	+3.1	49
3	Monaco	23	14	5	4	+21	+3.0	47
4	Lens	23	13	7	3	+17	+0.7	46
5	Lille	23	12	5	6	+13	+3.6	41
6	Rennes	23	12	4	7	+14	+0.5	40
7	Nice	24	10	8	6	+9	+0.1	38
8	Lorient	23	10	6	7	+0	-3.6	36
9	Lyon	24	10	5	9	+9	+1.6	35
10	Reims	24	7	13	4	+4	+6.0	34
11	Toulouse	23	9	5	9	+0	+0.9	32
12	Clermont	23	8	6	9	-7	-2.1	30
13	Nantes	23	6	10	7	-2	-1.1	28
14	Montpellier	23	7	2	14	-11	-3.2	23
15	Strasbourg	24	4	9	11	-13	-3.3	21
16	Brest	23	4	8	11	-14	-3.8	20
17	Troyes	23	4	7	12	-19	-4.2	19
18	Ajaccio	23	5	3	15	-24	+0.3	18
19	Auxerre	24	4	6	14	-27	+4.1	18
20	Angers	24	2	4	18	-30	-4.6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	12	10	0	2	+18	+0.5	30
2	Lens	11	10	0	1	+14	-1.6	30
3	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+16	+0.2	29
4	Lille	12	7	3	2	+6	+2.7	24
5	Monaco	12	7	2	3	+10	+1.9	23
6	Marseille	12	7	2	3	+10	+0.8	23
7	Toulouse	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.7	22
8	Lyon	12	6	3	3	+9	+2.3	21
9	Nice	12	5	4	3	+6	-0.5	19
10	Reims	11	5	4	2	+5	+5.2	19
11	Lorient	11	5	3	3	+2	-0.2	18
12	Nantes	11	4	5	2	+2	-0.6	17
13	Clermont	12	4	2	6	-10	-2.0	14
14	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-5	-2.1	13
15	Auxerre	12	3	4	5	-9	+2.1	13
16	Strasbourg	13	2	6	5	-5	+0.3	12
17	Brest	11	2	5	4	-6	-0.0	11
18	Troyes	11	1	7	3	-5	-1.5	10
19	Ajaccio	11	2	1	8	-11	-0.5	7
20	Angers	12	1	2	9	-12	-2.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	11	8	2	1	+15	+2.3	26
2	Paris SG	12	8	1	3	+19	+1.8	25
3	Monaco	11	7	3	1	+11	+1.1	24
4	Nice	12	5	4	3	+3	+0.6	19
5	Lorient	12	5	3	4	-2	-3.4	18
6	Lille	11	5	2	4	+7	+0.8	17
7	Clermont	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.1	16
8	Lens	12	3	7	2	+3	+2.3	16
9	Reims	13	2	9	2	-1	+0.9	15
10	Lyon	12	4	2	6	+0	-0.7	14
11	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-4	-0.6	11
12	Ajaccio	12	3	2	7	-13	+0.8	11
13	Rennes	11	2	4	5	-4	-0.0	10
14	Montpellier	11	3	1	7	-6	-1.1	10
15	Toulouse	11	3	1	7	-6	-0.9	10
16	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.6	9
17	Brest	12	2	3	7	-8	-3.8	9
18	Troyes	12	3	0	9	-14	-2.6	9
19	Auxerre	12	1	2	9	-18	+2.0	5
20	Angers	12	1	2	9	-18	-1.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.