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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Paris SG

T T T S S

4–2

Full-time

Nantes

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 50%

76%

24%

Points per game

2,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

68%

40%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

44%

Average goals

3,4

2,2

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,39 xG 0,38

67% Possession 33%

17 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Nantes 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	19	3	3	+39	+2.0	60
2	Marseille	25	16	4	5	+23	+1.8	52
3	Lens	26	14	9	3	+19	+3.5	51
4	Monaco	25	15	5	5	+19	+2.4	50
5	Rennes	25	14	4	7	+17	+0.2	46
6	Lille	26	13	6	7	+13	+5.5	45
7	Nice	26	11	9	6	+12	+2.5	42
8	Lorient	25	11	6	8	+2	-1.0	39
9	Lyon	25	11	5	9	+11	+1.3	38
10	Reims	25	8	13	4	+7	+7.6	37
11	Toulouse	25	9	5	11	-4	+0.2	32
12	Clermont	25	8	7	10	-9	-3.5	31
13	Nantes	25	6	10	9	-5	-1.7	28
14	Montpellier	25	8	3	14	-10	-3.0	27
15	Strasbourg	25	4	10	11	-13	-3.2	22
16	Auxerre	26	5	7	14	-26	+2.2	22
17	Ajaccio	25	6	3	16	-26	+0.9	21
18	Brest	25	4	8	13	-16	-5.3	20
19	Troyes	25	4	7	14	-21	-8.2	19
20	Angers	25	2	4	19	-32	-4.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	13	11	1	1	+16	-0.1	34
2	Rennes	13	11	0	2	+20	+1.8	33
3	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+17	-0.2	32
4	Lille	13	8	3	2	+7	+3.5	27
5	Monaco	13	7	2	4	+7	+0.6	23
6	Marseille	13	7	2	4	+7	+0.5	23
7	Reims	12	6	4	2	+8	+6.8	22
8	Toulouse	13	6	4	3	+5	+2.7	22
9	Lyon	12	6	3	3	+9	+2.3	21
10	Lorient	13	6	3	4	+4	+2.4	21
11	Nice	13	5	5	3	+6	+0.6	20
12	Nantes	12	4	5	3	+1	+1.1	17
13	Clermont	13	4	3	6	-10	-2.0	15
14	Montpellier	13	4	2	7	-5	-3.4	14
15	Auxerre	12	3	4	5	-9	+2.1	13
16	Strasbourg	13	2	6	5	-5	+0.3	12
17	Brest	12	2	5	5	-7	-0.7	11
18	Troyes	12	1	7	4	-6	-3.1	10
19	Ajaccio	12	3	1	8	-10	+2.0	10
20	Angers	13	1	2	10	-14	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	12	9	2	1	+16	+1.3	29
2	Paris SG	13	9	1	3	+22	+2.2	28
3	Monaco	12	8	3	1	+12	+1.8	27
4	Nice	13	6	4	3	+6	+1.9	22
5	Lille	13	5	3	5	+6	+2.0	18
6	Lorient	12	5	3	4	-2	-3.4	18
7	Lens	13	3	8	2	+3	+3.7	17
8	Lyon	13	5	2	6	+2	-1.1	17
9	Clermont	12	4	4	4	+1	-1.5	16
10	Reims	13	2	9	2	-1	+0.9	15
11	Rennes	12	3	4	5	-3	-1.7	13
12	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-5	+0.4	13
13	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-6	-2.7	11
14	Ajaccio	13	3	2	8	-16	-1.0	11
15	Strasbourg	12	2	4	6	-8	-3.5	10
16	Toulouse	12	3	1	8	-9	-2.5	10
17	Brest	13	2	3	8	-9	-4.6	9
18	Troyes	13	3	0	10	-15	-5.1	9
19	Auxerre	14	2	3	9	-17	+0.0	9
20	Angers	12	1	2	9	-18	-1.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.