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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Toulouse

T T S T S

0–2

Full-time

Lille

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,7

4,0

Scored

2,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 43%

37%

48%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 63%

59%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

1,6

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,32 xG 1,62

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 2

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 11. · Lille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	21	3	3	+42	+5.0	66
2	Marseille	27	17	5	5	+24	+1.8	56
3	Lens	27	15	9	3	+23	+4.2	54
4	Monaco	27	15	6	6	+18	+3.6	51
5	Rennes	27	14	5	8	+16	-0.7	47
6	Lille	27	13	7	7	+13	+6.9	46
7	Nice	27	11	10	6	+12	+2.1	43
8	Reims	27	10	13	4	+9	+8.9	43
9	Lorient	27	12	7	8	+4	-1.0	43
10	Lyon	28	11	8	9	+11	+0.7	41
11	Toulouse	27	10	5	12	-3	+0.4	35
12	Clermont	27	9	7	11	-12	-4.3	34
13	Montpellier	27	10	3	14	-4	-0.1	33
14	Nantes	28	6	12	10	-7	-1.9	30
15	Strasbourg	27	4	11	12	-14	-2.3	23
16	Brest	27	5	8	14	-16	-7.7	23
17	Auxerre	27	5	8	14	-26	+2.4	23
18	Ajaccio	27	6	3	18	-28	-0.3	21
19	Troyes	27	4	8	15	-23	-11.6	20
20	Angers	27	2	4	21	-39	-6.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+19	+0.8	35
2	Lens	13	11	1	1	+16	-0.1	34
3	Rennes	14	11	0	3	+19	+1.2	33
4	Lille	14	8	4	2	+7	+5.0	28
5	Reims	13	7	4	2	+9	+7.0	25
6	Marseille	14	7	3	4	+7	-0.1	24
7	Lorient	14	7	3	4	+6	+3.7	24
8	Lyon	14	6	5	3	+9	+3.2	23
9	Monaco	14	7	2	5	+6	-0.4	23
10	Toulouse	14	6	4	4	+4	+2.9	22
11	Nice	13	5	5	3	+6	+0.6	20
12	Nantes	13	4	6	3	+1	+1.5	18
13	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	+0	-1.5	17
14	Clermont	14	4	3	7	-14	-2.7	15
15	Auxerre	13	3	5	5	-9	+2.3	14
16	Strasbourg	14	2	6	6	-6	+0.6	12
17	Troyes	13	1	8	4	-6	-5.3	11
18	Brest	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.7	11
19	Ajaccio	13	3	1	9	-11	+1.0	10
20	Angers	14	1	2	11	-16	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	13	10	2	1	+17	+2.0	32
2	Paris SG	14	10	1	3	+23	+4.1	31
3	Monaco	13	8	4	1	+12	+4.1	28
4	Nice	14	6	5	3	+6	+1.5	23
5	Lens	14	4	8	2	+7	+4.3	20
6	Clermont	13	5	4	4	+2	-1.7	19
7	Lorient	13	5	4	4	-2	-4.7	19
8	Lille	13	5	3	5	+6	+2.0	18
9	Lyon	14	5	3	6	+2	-2.5	18
10	Reims	14	3	9	2	+0	+1.9	18
11	Montpellier	13	5	1	7	-4	+1.4	16
12	Rennes	13	3	5	5	-3	-1.9	14
13	Toulouse	13	4	1	8	-7	-2.5	13
14	Nantes	15	2	6	7	-8	-3.4	12
15	Brest	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.0	12
16	Strasbourg	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.9	11
17	Ajaccio	14	3	2	9	-17	-1.3	11
18	Troyes	14	3	0	11	-17	-6.3	9
19	Auxerre	14	2	3	9	-17	+0.0	9
20	Angers	13	1	2	10	-23	-3.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.