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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Lille

U U S S T

2–1

Full-time

Montpellier

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

37%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

63%

57%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,11 xG 0,42

69% Possession 31%

17 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 6. · Montpellier 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	23	3	5	+43	+3.7	72
2	Lens	31	18	9	4	+26	+6.6	63
3	Marseille	30	18	7	5	+25	+2.5	61
4	Monaco	30	17	7	6	+21	+4.1	58
5	Rennes	31	16	5	10	+18	+1.3	53
6	Lille	30	15	7	8	+16	+8.8	52
7	Lyon	31	14	8	9	+15	+2.2	50
8	Reims	31	11	14	6	+8	+9.9	47
9	Nice	30	11	12	7	+10	+3.7	45
10	Lorient	30	12	9	9	+2	-3.8	45
11	Clermont	30	11	7	12	-10	-3.2	40
12	Toulouse	31	11	5	15	-7	+0.2	38
13	Montpellier	30	11	4	15	-4	+0.6	37
14	Nantes	30	6	13	11	-10	-3.1	31
15	Auxerre	30	7	8	15	-24	-0.4	29
16	Brest	30	6	10	14	-14	-9.7	28
17	Strasbourg	30	5	11	14	-14	-0.3	26
18	Troyes	30	4	9	17	-26	-12.3	21
19	Ajaccio	30	6	3	21	-34	-2.1	21
20	Angers	30	3	5	22	-41	-8.6	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	1	1	+20	+1.2	40
2	Paris SG	16	12	2	2	+18	-0.1	38
3	Rennes	16	12	0	4	+21	+3.3	36
4	Lille	15	9	4	2	+9	+6.8	31
5	Lyon	15	7	5	3	+11	+3.2	26
6	Reims	15	7	5	3	+8	+9.7	26
7	Monaco	15	8	2	5	+7	-0.5	26
8	Marseille	15	7	4	4	+7	+0.6	25
9	Lorient	15	7	4	4	+6	+3.2	25
10	Toulouse	16	6	4	6	+1	+2.5	22
11	Nice	15	5	6	4	+4	+1.5	21
12	Montpellier	16	6	2	8	+0	-0.1	20
13	Nantes	15	4	7	4	-2	+0.3	19
14	Clermont	15	5	3	7	-13	-0.8	18
15	Auxerre	14	4	5	5	-8	+1.9	17
16	Strasbourg	15	3	6	6	-4	+2.7	15
17	Brest	14	3	5	6	-6	-2.7	14
18	Troyes	15	1	9	5	-8	-6.4	12
19	Ajaccio	15	3	1	11	-16	+1.0	10
20	Angers	16	2	3	11	-15	-3.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	15	11	3	1	+18	+1.9	36
2	Paris SG	15	11	1	3	+25	+3.7	34
3	Monaco	15	9	5	1	+14	+4.6	32
4	Nice	15	6	6	3	+6	+2.2	24
5	Lyon	16	7	3	6	+4	-1.0	24
6	Lens	16	5	8	3	+6	+5.3	23
7	Clermont	15	6	4	5	+3	-2.4	22
8	Lille	15	6	3	6	+7	+2.0	21
9	Reims	16	4	9	3	+0	+0.2	21
10	Lorient	15	5	5	5	-4	-7.0	20
11	Rennes	15	4	5	6	-3	-2.0	17
12	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.7	17
13	Toulouse	15	5	1	9	-8	-2.3	16
14	Brest	16	3	5	8	-8	-7.0	14
15	Nantes	15	2	6	7	-8	-3.4	12
16	Auxerre	16	3	3	10	-16	-2.4	12
17	Strasbourg	15	2	5	8	-10	-3.0	11
18	Ajaccio	15	3	2	10	-18	-3.1	11
19	Troyes	15	3	0	12	-18	-5.9	9
20	Angers	14	1	2	11	-26	-4.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.