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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Marseille

S U S U U

3–1

Full-time

Troyes

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Troyes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 37%

60%

13%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

53%

63%

Both score Ø 64%

57%

70%

Average goals

2,8

3,4

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,84 xG 0,44

72% Possession 28%

28 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 3. · Troyes 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	23	3	5	+43	+3.7	72
2	Lens	31	18	9	4	+26	+6.6	63
3	Marseille	30	18	7	5	+25	+2.5	61
4	Monaco	31	18	7	6	+23	+4.9	61
5	Lille	31	16	7	8	+17	+10.5	55
6	Rennes	31	16	5	10	+18	+1.3	53
7	Lyon	31	14	8	9	+15	+2.2	50
8	Reims	31	11	14	6	+8	+9.9	47
9	Nice	31	11	12	8	+9	+3.2	45
10	Lorient	31	12	9	10	+0	-4.5	45
11	Clermont	31	12	7	12	-9	-1.4	43
12	Toulouse	31	11	5	15	-7	+0.2	38
13	Montpellier	31	11	4	16	-5	-1.1	37
14	Auxerre	31	8	8	15	-23	+1.2	32
15	Nantes	31	6	13	12	-11	-4.7	31
16	Brest	31	7	10	14	-13	-9.2	31
17	Strasbourg	31	6	11	14	-12	+0.9	29
18	Troyes	30	4	9	17	-26	-12.3	21
19	Ajaccio	31	6	3	22	-36	-3.3	21
20	Angers	31	3	5	23	-42	-10.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	1	1	+20	+1.2	40
2	Paris SG	16	12	2	2	+18	-0.1	38
3	Rennes	16	12	0	4	+21	+3.3	36
4	Lille	16	10	4	2	+10	+8.5	34
5	Monaco	16	9	2	5	+9	+0.2	29
6	Lyon	15	7	5	3	+11	+3.2	26
7	Reims	15	7	5	3	+8	+9.7	26
8	Marseille	15	7	4	4	+7	+0.6	25
9	Lorient	15	7	4	4	+6	+3.2	25
10	Toulouse	16	6	4	6	+1	+2.5	22
11	Nice	15	5	6	4	+4	+1.5	21
12	Clermont	16	6	3	7	-12	+1.0	21
13	Montpellier	16	6	2	8	+0	-0.1	20
14	Auxerre	15	5	5	5	-7	+3.6	20
15	Nantes	15	4	7	4	-2	+0.3	19
16	Strasbourg	16	4	6	6	-2	+3.9	18
17	Brest	15	4	5	6	-5	-2.2	17
18	Troyes	15	1	9	5	-8	-6.4	12
19	Ajaccio	15	3	1	11	-16	+1.0	10
20	Angers	16	2	3	11	-15	-3.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	15	11	3	1	+18	+1.9	36
2	Paris SG	15	11	1	3	+25	+3.7	34
3	Monaco	15	9	5	1	+14	+4.6	32
4	Nice	16	6	6	4	+5	+1.7	24
5	Lyon	16	7	3	6	+4	-1.0	24
6	Lens	16	5	8	3	+6	+5.3	23
7	Clermont	15	6	4	5	+3	-2.4	22
8	Lille	15	6	3	6	+7	+2.0	21
9	Reims	16	4	9	3	+0	+0.2	21
10	Lorient	16	5	5	6	-6	-7.8	20
11	Rennes	15	4	5	6	-3	-2.0	17
12	Montpellier	15	5	2	8	-5	-1.0	17
13	Toulouse	15	5	1	9	-8	-2.3	16
14	Brest	16	3	5	8	-8	-7.0	14
15	Nantes	16	2	6	8	-9	-5.0	12
16	Auxerre	16	3	3	10	-16	-2.4	12
17	Strasbourg	15	2	5	8	-10	-3.0	11
18	Ajaccio	16	3	2	11	-20	-4.3	11
19	Troyes	15	3	0	12	-18	-5.9	9
20	Angers	15	1	2	12	-27	-6.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.