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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Paris SG

S S U S S

3–1

Full-time

Lille

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

4,5

3,8

Scored

3,7

3,5

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+3,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 58%

70%

45%

Points per game

2,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

70%

30%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,3

2,1

Scored

2,4

1,4

Conceded

0,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,83 xG 1,20

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Lille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	14	5	1	+31	+18.5	47
2	Nice	20	11	6	3	+9	+9.6	39
3	Brest	20	10	6	4	+12	+5.6	36
4	Lille	20	9	8	3	+14	+11.0	35
5	Monaco	20	10	5	5	+9	+5.1	35
6	Lens	21	10	5	6	+7	+1.4	35
7	Marseille	21	7	9	5	+6	+15.4	30
8	Reims	20	9	3	8	+0	+4.4	30
9	Rennes	20	7	7	6	+5	+8.0	28
10	Strasbourg	21	6	7	8	-7	-2.2	25
11	Le Havre	20	5	9	6	-1	-7.5	24
12	Montpellier	20	4	8	8	-5	-0.4	20
13	Toulouse	20	4	8	8	-8	-10.6	20
14	Nantes	20	5	4	11	-11	-8.3	19
15	Lyon	20	5	4	11	-13	-5.2	19
16	Metz	21	4	5	12	-14	-16.0	17
17	Lorient	20	3	7	10	-16	-13.2	16
18	Clermont	20	3	6	11	-18	-15.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	10	7	3	0	+10	+8.3	24
2	Paris SG	10	7	2	1	+17	+11.6	23
3	Lille	10	7	2	1	+14	+12.1	23
4	Marseille	11	6	5	0	+12	+13.3	23
5	Lens	10	6	2	2	+8	+6.0	20
6	Brest	10	5	4	1	+10	+10.0	19
7	Monaco	10	6	1	3	+8	+5.6	19
8	Rennes	11	5	3	3	+7	+8.4	18
9	Reims	10	5	1	4	+0	+5.4	16
10	Strasbourg	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.9	15
11	Le Havre	9	4	2	3	+3	+3.6	14
12	Nantes	11	3	3	5	-1	-1.6	12
13	Lyon	11	3	3	5	-5	+1.2	12
14	Montpellier	10	1	7	2	-1	+4.5	10
15	Lorient	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.1	10
16	Toulouse	9	1	5	3	-1	+0.5	8
17	Metz	10	1	3	6	-4	-2.2	6
18	Clermont	10	1	3	6	-9	-5.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+14	+6.9	24
2	Brest	10	5	2	3	+2	-4.3	17
3	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+1	-0.6	16
4	Lens	11	4	3	4	-1	-4.6	15
5	Nice	10	4	3	3	-1	+1.2	15
6	Reims	10	4	2	4	+0	-1.0	14
7	Lille	10	2	6	2	+0	-1.0	12
8	Toulouse	11	3	3	5	-7	-11.1	12
9	Metz	11	3	2	6	-10	-13.8	11
10	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.4	10
11	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.9	10
12	Le Havre	11	1	7	3	-4	-11.1	10
13	Strasbourg	11	2	4	5	-9	-5.1	10
14	Clermont	10	2	3	5	-9	-10.5	9
15	Marseille	10	1	4	5	-6	+2.1	7
16	Lyon	9	2	1	6	-8	-6.4	7
17	Nantes	9	2	1	6	-10	-6.7	7
18	Lorient	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.