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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Utrecht

S S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Nijmegen

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 25/24 matches

Win Ø 37%

32%

42%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

32%

71%

Both score Ø 60%

48%

71%

Average goals

2,5

3,6

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,10 xG 0,57

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 9. · Nijmegen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	25	22	3	0	+67	+53.2	69
2	Feyenoord	25	18	5	2	+44	+48.4	59
3	Twente	25	16	5	4	+25	+17.6	53
4	AZ Alkmaar	26	14	7	5	+30	+15.5	49
5	Ajax	25	11	7	7	+10	+9.7	40
6	Nijmegen	24	10	8	6	+11	-7.8	38
7	Go Ahead Eagles	25	10	6	9	+3	-5.0	36
8	For Sittard	26	9	7	10	-11	+2.2	34
9	Utrecht	25	8	9	8	-3	-6.6	33
10	Heerenveen	25	9	4	12	-6	-2.2	31
11	Sparta Rotterdam	25	8	6	11	-5	-7.6	30
12	Almere City	26	7	9	10	-17	-12.5	30
13	Zwolle	26	7	7	12	-13	-11.0	28
14	Heracles	26	7	5	14	-25	-22.0	26
15	Excelsior	26	4	10	12	-18	-12.5	22
16	Waalwijk	26	6	4	16	-19	-11.8	22
17	Vitesse	26	4	5	17	-32	-20.0	17
18	Volendam	26	3	5	18	-41	-27.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	1	0	+28	+28.8	34
2	Twente	13	10	1	2	+13	+12.4	31
3	Feyenoord	13	9	3	1	+24	+27.0	30
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	8	2	3	+19	+13.5	26
5	Ajax	13	7	4	2	+14	+9.0	25
6	For Sittard	13	7	3	3	+8	+11.7	24
7	Nijmegen	12	7	2	3	+12	+4.3	23
8	Go Ahead Eagles	13	6	3	4	+10	+4.7	21
9	Heerenveen	12	6	2	4	+6	+8.1	20
10	Heracles	13	5	3	5	-8	-7.6	18
11	Utrecht	12	4	5	3	+0	-1.0	17
12	Waalwijk	13	4	2	7	-5	-3.2	14
13	Almere City	13	3	5	5	-8	-4.3	14
14	Excelsior	13	2	7	4	-4	+0.2	13
15	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	4	5	-5	+1.1	13
16	Zwolle	13	3	3	7	-12	+0.4	12
17	Vitesse	13	1	5	7	-10	-5.3	8
18	Volendam	13	2	1	10	-25	-8.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	11	2	0	+39	+24.4	35
2	Feyenoord	12	9	2	1	+20	+21.4	29
3	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	5	2	+11	+2.0	23
4	Twente	12	6	4	2	+12	+5.2	22
5	Sparta Rotterdam	13	5	2	6	+0	-8.7	17
6	Zwolle	13	4	4	5	-1	-11.5	16
7	Utrecht	13	4	4	5	-3	-5.6	16
8	Almere City	13	4	4	5	-9	-8.2	16
9	Nijmegen	12	3	6	3	-1	-12.0	15
10	Ajax	12	4	3	5	-4	+0.7	15
11	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	3	5	-7	-9.6	15
12	Heerenveen	13	3	2	8	-12	-10.3	11
13	For Sittard	13	2	4	7	-19	-9.5	10
14	Excelsior	13	2	3	8	-14	-12.7	9
15	Vitesse	13	3	0	10	-22	-14.7	9
16	Waalwijk	13	2	2	9	-14	-8.6	8
17	Heracles	13	2	2	9	-17	-14.4	8
18	Volendam	13	1	4	8	-16	-19.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.