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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Lens

T T S T S

2–0

Full-time

Montpellier

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 27%

38%

15%

Points per game

1,5

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

23%

77%

Both score Ø 46%

38%

54%

Average goals

2,1

3,6

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,9

2,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,27 xG 1,10

55% Possession 45%

18 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 7. · Montpellier 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+26	+25.7	34
2	Monaco	14	9	2	3	+12	+16.3	29
3	Marseille	13	8	2	3	+12	-1.9	26
4	Lille	14	7	5	2	+10	+6.8	26
5	Lyon	14	7	4	3	+9	+7.2	25
6	Nice	14	6	5	3	+9	+8.5	23
7	Lens	13	5	5	3	+3	+6.2	20
8	Auxerre	14	6	2	6	+0	-7.2	20
9	Reims	13	5	3	5	+2	-4.7	18
10	Toulouse	14	5	3	6	-1	+7.3	18
11	Brest	14	5	1	8	-6	-9.6	16
12	Rennes	13	4	2	7	-1	+1.1	14
13	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-5	-7.2	13
14	Angers	14	3	4	7	-10	-6.5	13
15	St Etienne	13	4	1	8	-19	-12.0	13
16	Le Havre	14	4	0	10	-15	-10.9	12
17	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-5	-6.0	11
18	Montpellier	13	2	2	9	-21	-13.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+16	+12.1	19
2	Monaco	8	5	2	1	+6	+10.4	17
3	Auxerre	7	5	1	1	+7	+1.4	16
4	Nice	7	4	3	0	+11	+8.2	15
5	Lille	7	4	2	1	+4	+1.6	14
6	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+9	+5.4	13
7	Brest	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.5	13
8	Lyon	7	4	1	2	+4	+4.3	13
9	St Etienne	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.9	12
10	Strasbourg	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.1	11
11	Toulouse	7	3	2	2	+2	+5.6	11
12	Lens	6	2	2	2	-1	+5.9	8
13	Reims	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.6	8
14	Marseille	6	2	2	2	-2	-0.3	8
15	Montpellier	7	2	2	3	-7	-2.3	8
16	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-11	-7.7	6
17	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-2	+2.0	5
18	Angers	7	1	1	5	-9	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	7	6	0	1	+14	-1.6	18
2	Paris SG	7	4	3	0	+10	+13.7	15
3	Monaco	6	4	0	2	+6	+5.9	12
4	Lille	7	3	3	1	+6	+5.2	12
5	Lyon	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.9	12
6	Lens	7	3	3	1	+4	+0.4	12
7	Reims	6	3	1	2	+4	-2.1	10
8	Angers	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.0	9
9	Nice	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.3	8
10	Toulouse	7	2	1	4	-3	+1.7	7
11	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-3	-7.9	6
12	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-4	-3.2	6
13	Auxerre	7	1	1	5	-7	-8.6	4
14	Brest	7	1	0	6	-11	-10.1	3
15	Strasbourg	7	0	2	5	-8	-7.1	2
16	Rennes	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.3	1
17	St Etienne	7	0	1	6	-21	-14.9	1
18	Montpellier	6	0	0	6	-14	-10.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.