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Super League
Referee: Harm Osmers
AEK
T S U S S
1–0
Full-time
Aris Thessalonikis
T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Aris Thessalonikis
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
2,2
2,0
Scored
1,7
0,7
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 11/10 matches
Win Ø 52%
73%
30%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 20%
9%
30%
Both score Ø 34%
18%
50%
Average goals
1,7
2,0
Scored
1,1
0,9
Conceded
0,6
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%
27 Shots 6
7 Shots on target 3
8 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
10 Corners 1
13 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AEK 3. · Aris Thessalonikis 8. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Olympiakos 12 10 1 1 +20 31
2 PAOK 11 8 2 1 +16 26
3 AEK 11 8 1 2 +5 25
4 Levadeiakos 11 5 4 2 +14 19
5 Panathinaikos 11 5 4 2 +6 19
6 Volos NFC 11 6 0 5 -2 18
7 Panetolikos 12 4 3 5 -2 15
8 Aris Thessalonikis 10 3 4 3 -2 13
9 Aris 11 3 4 4 -3 13
10 Kifisia 12 3 3 6 -5 12
11 Asteras Tripolis 12 1 6 5 -4 9
12 Atromitos 12 2 3 7 -5 9
13 OFI Crete 10 3 0 7 -8 9
14 Larisa 10 1 4 5 -9 7
15 Panserraikos 12 1 3 8 -21 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Mar -25 Aris Thessalonikis – AEK 0–0 30. Nov -24 AEK – Aris Thessalonikis 4–0 21. Apr -24 Aris Thessalonikis – AEK 1–2 14. Apr -24 AEK – Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 3. Mar -24 Aris Thessalonikis – AEK 3–3

Match report

AEK Aris Thessalonikis
Orbelín Pineda 🟨
12′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 L. Rose
↦ N. Sonko Sundberg
50′
🟨 Carles Pérez
55′
🔁 Dudu
↦ M. Alfarela
James Penrice 🟨
63′
S. Pilios 🔁
↦ J. Penrice
67′
A. Koita 🔁
↦ D. Kaloskamis
67′
1–0 Zini ⚽
P. Mantalos
77′
Zini 🟨
78′
78′
🔁 O. Morutan
↦ M. Panagidis
78′
🔁 G. Gianniotas
↦ C. Perez
M. Gacinovic 🔁
↦ Joao Mario
79′
81′
🟨 Pedro Álvaro
M. Grujic 🔁
↦ Zini
83′
R. Marin 🔁
↦ P. Mantalos
84′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

AEK

4-2-2-2
1 T. Strakosha G
12 L. Rota D
2 H. Moukoudi D
44 F. Relvas D
29 J. Penrice D
20 P. Mantalos M
13 O. Pineda M
17 D. Kaloskamis
10 Joao Mario M
9 L. Jovic F
90 Zini F
Bench (12)
81 A. Angelopoulos
91 A. Brignoli
3 S. Pilios
21 D. Vida
28 M. Odubajo
55 K. Chrysopoulos
4 M. Grujic
18 R. Marin
23 R. Ljubicic
37 R. Pereyra
8 M. Gacinovic
11 A. Koita

Coach: Marko Nikolić

Aris Thessalonikis

4-4-2
13 S. Dioudis G
15 A. Tejero D
24 P. Alvaro D
20 N. Sonko Sundberg D
27 N. Fadiga D
7 C. Perez M
8 Monchu M
10 U. Racic M
77 M. Panagidis M
19 M. Alfarela F
80 L. Moron F
Bench (10)
17 M. Frydek
18 O. Morutan
25 M. Gning
40 P. Sisto
70 G. Gianniotas
33 G. Athanasiadis
4 Fabiano
28 Dudu
21 L. Majkic
92 L. Rose

Coach: Manuel Enrique Jiménez Jiménez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Harm Osmers · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.