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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

St Pauli

T T U T T

0–1

Full-time

Union Berlin

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,3

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 25%

20%

30%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

50%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,72 xG 0,55

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 16. · Union Berlin 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	10	1	0	+33	+22.5	31
2	RB Leipzig	11	8	1	2	+9	+5.5	25
3	Leverkusen	11	7	2	2	+12	+7.1	23
4	Dortmund	11	6	4	1	+9	+7.1	22
5	Stuttgart	11	7	1	3	+5	+2.4	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	6	2	3	+5	+4.3	20
7	Hoffenheim	11	6	2	3	+5	+0.6	20
8	Werder Bremen	11	4	3	4	-5	-6.6	15
9	FC Koln	11	4	2	5	+1	-2.1	14
10	Freiburg	11	3	4	4	-5	-1.5	13
11	M'gladbach	11	3	3	5	-3	-0.5	12
12	Union Berlin	10	3	3	4	-4	-5.4	12
13	Augsburg	11	3	1	7	-9	-8.5	10
14	Hamburg	11	2	3	6	-8	-4.0	9
15	Wolfsburg	11	2	2	7	-8	-3.5	8
16	St Pauli	10	2	1	7	-11	-5.3	7
17	Mainz	11	1	3	7	-8	-2.5	6
18	Heidenheim	11	1	2	8	-18	-9.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	6	0	0	+23	+11.4	18
2	RB Leipzig	5	5	0	0	+9	+4.2	15
3	Stuttgart	5	5	0	0	+6	+1.7	15
4	Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	+11	+8.7	13
5	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+5	+4.4	11
6	Werder Bremen	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.6	10
7	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	0	2	+2	+4.0	9
8	Union Berlin	6	2	3	1	+1	-1.3	9
9	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.8	8
10	FC Koln	5	2	1	2	+4	+1.9	7
11	Hamburg	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.5	7
12	Hoffenheim	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.9	6
13	Augsburg	6	2	0	4	-8	-5.8	6
14	Heidenheim	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.7	5
15	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-7	-3.6	5
16	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.8	4
17	Mainz	6	0	2	4	-5	-2.5	2
18	Wolfsburg	6	0	2	4	-7	-1.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	6	4	2	0	+7	+1.5	14
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+10	+11.1	13
3	Dortmund	6	3	2	1	+4	+2.6	11
4	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.3	11
5	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+1	-1.6	10
6	RB Leipzig	6	3	1	2	+0	+1.3	10
7	M'gladbach	5	2	1	2	+4	+3.0	7
8	Stuttgart	6	2	1	3	-1	+0.7	7
9	FC Koln	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.0	7
10	Wolfsburg	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
11	Werder Bremen	6	1	2	3	-5	-8.3	5
12	Freiburg	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.3	5
13	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-1	-2.7	4
14	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.1	4
15	St Pauli	5	1	0	4	-4	-3.5	3
16	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
17	Hamburg	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.4	2
18	Heidenheim	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.