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Eredivisie

Referee: Allard Lindhout

Heerenveen

S U S U T

3–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 43%

27%

58%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

64%

75%

Both score Ø 79%

82%

75%

Average goals

3,3

3,6

Scored

1,5

2,1

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,14 xG 1,17

47% Possession 53%

21 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 13. · AZ Alkmaar 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	11	1	1	+24	+12.7	34
2	Feyenoord	12	9	1	2	+19	+18.4	28
3	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	3	2	+7	+10.2	24
4	Ajax	13	5	5	3	+4	+2.8	20
5	Groningen	12	6	1	5	+0	+3.3	19
6	Nijmegen	12	5	3	4	+9	+5.4	18
7	Utrecht	11	6	0	5	+6	-2.0	18
8	Twente	13	4	5	4	+2	+11.1	17
9	For Sittard	13	5	2	6	-2	-6.9	17
10	Sparta Rotterdam	13	5	2	6	-10	-4.8	17
11	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	4	5	-1	-5.5	16
12	Volendam	13	3	5	5	-4	-10.0	14
13	Heerenveen	11	3	4	4	-2	+8.2	13
14	Excelsior	13	4	1	8	-11	-8.6	13
15	NAC Breda	13	3	3	7	-7	-6.9	12
16	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-13	-10.3	12
17	Heracles	13	4	0	9	-14	-10.4	12
18	Telstar	12	2	3	7	-7	-6.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	6	5	0	1	+10	+3.7	15
2	Feyenoord	6	5	0	1	+7	+10.5	15
3	PSV Eindhoven	6	4	1	1	+9	+7.7	13
4	Nijmegen	6	4	1	1	+9	+5.3	13
5	Ajax	7	4	1	2	+4	+5.3	13
6	For Sittard	6	4	1	1	+4	+1.3	13
7	Volendam	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
8	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	2	1	+3	+4.4	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.7	11
10	Groningen	6	3	1	2	+4	+3.0	10
11	NAC Breda	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.1	10
12	Heerenveen	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.8	9
13	Heracles	6	3	0	3	+0	-1.8	9
14	Twente	6	2	2	2	-1	+6.9	8
15	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-7	-3.2	8
16	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-6	-2.8	7
17	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-2	-3.5	6
18	Telstar	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+15	+5.0	21
2	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+12	+7.9	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+4	+5.9	13
4	Twente	7	2	3	2	+3	+4.2	9
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	0	3	-3	-1.7	9
6	Groningen	6	3	0	3	-4	+0.3	9
7	Ajax	6	1	4	1	+0	-2.5	7
8	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
9	Nijmegen	6	1	2	3	+0	+0.1	5
10	Go Ahead Eagles	7	1	2	4	-4	-6.1	5
11	Zwolle	6	1	2	3	-7	-7.5	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	1	3	-3	+1.3	4
13	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-4	-6.8	4
14	For Sittard	7	1	1	5	-6	-8.2	4
15	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-4	-5.7	3
16	Heracles	7	1	0	6	-14	-8.6	3
17	NAC Breda	6	0	2	4	-7	-10.0	2
18	Volendam	6	0	2	4	-8	-9.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.