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Eredivisie
Referee: B Nijhuis
Utrecht
T S S S U
3–1
Full-time
VVV Venlo
S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht VVV Venlo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,3
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,2
This season — Eredivisie · 18/20 matches
Win Ø 32%
33%
30%
Points per game
1,4
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
44%
80%
Both score Ø 74%
67%
80%
Average goals
2,7
4,2
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,3
2,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,8
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%
24 Shots 11
11 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
6 Corners 3
0 Offside 3
16 Free kicks against 7
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Utrecht 11. · VVV Venlo 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 21 17 2 2 +53 53
2 PSV Eindhoven 22 14 5 3 +27 47
3 AZ Alkmaar 22 12 7 3 +16 43
4 Vitesse 21 13 3 5 +15 42
5 Feyenoord 18 11 3 4 +17 36
6 Groningen 20 11 3 6 +6 36
7 Twente 21 8 6 7 +5 30
8 Heerenveen 22 7 8 7 +0 29
9 For Sittard 22 8 4 10 -8 28
10 Heracles 22 8 4 10 -8 28
11 Utrecht 18 6 8 4 +0 26
12 Zwolle 22 4 11 7 -8 23
13 Sparta Rotterdam 20 6 4 10 -4 22
14 VVV Venlo 20 6 4 10 -15 22
15 Waalwijk 22 4 7 11 -16 19
16 Willem II 20 3 4 13 -18 13
17 Den Haag 21 2 7 12 -28 13
18 FC Emmen 22 0 6 16 -34 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Utrecht VVV Venlo
Gyrano Kerk ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
30′
Half-time 0–0
B. Ramselaar 🔁
↦ J. van Overeem
56′
M. Sylla 🔁
↦ Adrián Dalmau
56′
M. Mahi 🔁
↦ O. Boussaid
56′
56′
🔁 A. Swinkels
↦ K. Da Graca
1–0 M. Mahi
M. Sylla
61′
67′
🔁 J. John
↦ A. Donis
75′
🔁 C. Kum
↦ T. Pachonik
75′
🔁 J. Arias
↦ C. Donis
2–0 B. Ramselaar
H. ter Avest
85′
88′
ℹ️ Giorgos Giakoumakis
VAR: Goal cancelled
91′
G. Giakoumakis 2–1
3–1 M. Mahi
B. Ramselaar
95′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Utrecht

4-3-3
32 E. Oelschlägel G
14 W. Janssen D
21 D. Warmerdam D
5 H. ter Avest D
25 T. St. Jago D
6 A. Maher M
8 J. van Overeem M
22 S. van de Streek M
9 Adrián Dalmau F
7 G. Kerk F
26 O. Boussaid F
Bench (12)
23 B. Ramselaar
29 M. Sylla
19 M. Mahi
17 B. Benamar
1 M. Paes
28 U. Emanuelson
20 G. Troupée
30 R. Balk
16 T. Nijhuis
2 M. van der Maarel
24 O. Velanas
40 S. Mokono

Coach: R. Hake

VVV Venlo

4-2-3-1
1 T. Kirschbaum G
2 T. Pachonik D
38 L. Guwara D
44 K. Da Graca D
4 R. Gelmi D
6 D. Post M
18 C. Donis M
8 Z. Machach M
11 G. Giakoumakis F
21 A. Donis M
10 V. van Crooij M
Bench (12)
3 A. Swinkels
12 J. John
14 C. Kum
25 J. Arias
5 S. Schäfer
15 S. Janssen
24 W. Essanoussi
19 Y. Roemer
27 T. Hunte
30 J. Craenmehr
16 D. van Crooij
37 M. Shabani

Coach: H. de Koning

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,30
U
5,41
B
9,16
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,54
U2,5
2,42
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Nijhuis · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
15,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.