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Premier League

Referee: T Harrington

Nott'm Forest

T T T U U

0–1

Full-time

Sunderland

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Sunderland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,68 xG 1,66

65% Possession 35%

22 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 16. · Sunderland 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	0	1	+5	+2.2	15
2	Crystal Palace	6	3	3	0	+5	+4.6	12
3	Bournemouth	6	3	2	1	+1	+1.8	11
4	Man City	6	3	1	2	+8	+4.6	10
5	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+8	+4.1	10
6	Tottenham	5	3	1	1	+7	+0.1	10
7	Chelsea	6	2	2	2	+3	+2.2	8
8	Sunderland	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.9	8
9	Fulham	5	2	2	1	+1	-1.5	8
10	Brighton	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.7	8
11	Leeds	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.5	8
12	Everton	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.0	7
13	Brentford	6	2	1	3	-2	-1.0	7
14	Man United	6	2	1	3	-4	+2.9	7
15	Newcastle	5	1	3	1	+0	+2.0	6
16	Nott'm Forest	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.9	5
17	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-7	-8.0	4
18	Aston Villa	5	0	3	2	-4	-4.6	3
19	West Ham	5	1	0	4	-8	-2.8	3
20	Wolves	5	0	0	5	-9	-3.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
2	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+8	+4.4	7
3	Sunderland	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
4	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.1	7
5	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
6	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.0	7
7	Man City	3	2	0	1	+5	+3.2	6
8	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	+4.1	6
9	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.4	5
11	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.6	5
12	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
13	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.5	4
14	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.8	4
15	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
16	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
17	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
18	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-7	-1.4	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.2	7
2	Crystal Palace	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.2	7
3	Liverpool	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.5	6
4	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+3	+0.4	4
5	Man City	3	1	1	1	+3	+1.4	4
6	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.1	4
7	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
8	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
9	Newcastle	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
10	Everton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.7	3
11	Brighton	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.5	3
12	Leeds	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.1	3
13	Aston Villa	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
14	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.6	2
15	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
16	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
17	Man United	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
18	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
19	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.1	0
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-5.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.