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Eredivisie
Referee: A Bos
Excelsior
U U T U T
1–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Go Ahead Eagles
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,2
3,0
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
2,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 15/14 matches
Win Ø 32%
20%
43%
Points per game
1,1
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
80%
64%
Both score Ø 65%
80%
50%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
2,1
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,33 xG 0,93
47% Possession 53%
11 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 4
0 Offside 6
6 Free kicks against 7
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Excelsior 13. · Go Ahead Eagles 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 15 15 0 0 +46 +34.6 45
2 Feyenoord 15 11 2 2 +30 +29.7 35
3 AZ Alkmaar 15 10 3 2 +25 +14.6 33
4 Twente 15 10 3 2 +15 +12.2 33
5 Ajax 15 7 3 5 +5 +5.3 24
6 Go Ahead Eagles 14 6 3 5 +3 -7.6 21
7 Sparta Rotterdam 15 6 3 6 +0 -3.8 21
8 Nijmegen 15 5 5 5 +3 -11.6 20
9 Heerenveen 15 6 1 8 -5 -3.3 19
10 For Sittard 16 5 4 7 -11 -3.4 19
11 Zwolle 15 5 2 8 -5 -3.2 17
12 Utrecht 16 4 5 7 -9 -11.2 17
13 Excelsior 15 3 7 5 -5 -8.1 16
14 Heracles 15 4 3 8 -15 -8.2 15
15 Waalwijk 16 4 2 10 -13 -5.0 14
16 Almere City 15 3 4 8 -21 -9.1 13
17 Vitesse 15 3 2 10 -20 -10.8 11
18 Volendam 15 2 2 11 -23 -10.9 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Excelsior Go Ahead Eagles
Half-time 0–0
K. Fitz-Jim 🔁
↦ N. Naujoks
46′
54′
J. Amofa 0–1
P. Rommens
D. Sanches Fernandes 🔁
↦ C. Driouech
68′
M. Benita 🔁
↦ I. Smeulers
68′
N. Agrafiotis 🔁
↦ L. Lamprou
68′
68′
🔁 V. Edvardsen
↦ S. Sow
O. Uddenäs 🔁
↦ C. Widell
82′
82′
🔁 T. Baeten
↦ J. Breum
82′
🔁 G. Nauber
↦ O. Edvardsen
1–1 O. Uddenäs
S. Horemans
83′
89′
🟨 Philippe Rommens
93′
🟨 Gerrit Nauber
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Excelsior

5-4-1
1 S. van Gassel G
2 S. Horemans D
16 S. Nieuwpoort D
5 C. Widell D
4 R. El Yaakoubi D
28 I. Smeulers D
7 L. Lamprou M
15 N. Naujoks M
33 J. Baas M
14 C. Driouech M
9 T. Parrott F
Bench (10)
10 K. Fitz-Jim
30 D. Sanches Fernandes
22 M. Benita
19 N. Agrafiotis
11 O. Uddenäs
38 P. Kuiper
32 S. de Moes
29 M. van Duinen
18 N. Alblas
17 R. Omorowa

Coach: M. Dijkhuizen

Go Ahead Eagles

4-2-3-1
1 J. de Lange G
2 M. Deijl D
25 J. Amofa D
4 J. Kramer D
5 B. Kuipers D
21 E. Llansana M
10 P. Rommens M
29 J. Breum M
18 W. Willumsson M
23 O. Edvardsen M
9 S. Sow F
Bench (11)
16 V. Edvardsen
32 T. Baeten
3 G. Nauber
20 X. Blomme
7 R. Fernandes
24 L. Everink
8 E. Linthorst
30 S. Jansen
15 D. James
17 Darío Serra
22 E. Mulder

Coach: R. Hake

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,93
U ✓
3,68
B
2,27
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,64
U2,5 ✓
2,26
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Bos · 64 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.