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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Utrecht

T S U S U

2–2

Full-time

Excelsior

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 23%

18%

27%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

36%

73%

Both score Ø 55%

36%

73%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,71 xG 1,83

59% Possession 41%

13 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

13 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 16. · Excelsior 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	12	0	0	+40	+28.6	36
2	Feyenoord	12	9	2	1	+27	+24.3	29
3	Twente	12	8	3	1	+14	+9.3	27
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	8	2	1	+20	+9.2	26
5	Go Ahead Eagles	12	6	3	3	+7	-6.8	21
6	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	3	4	+1	-2.6	18
7	Excelsior	11	3	5	3	-1	-2.1	14
8	Zwolle	12	4	2	6	-7	-4.1	14
9	For Sittard	12	3	4	5	-8	-1.0	13
10	Heerenveen	12	4	1	7	-9	-4.2	13
11	Almere City	12	3	4	5	-10	-3.5	13
12	Ajax	11	3	3	5	-3	-2.7	12
13	Heracles	12	3	3	6	-17	-10.4	12
14	Nijmegen	11	2	5	4	-2	-8.1	11
15	Waalwijk	11	3	0	8	-12	-5.3	9
16	Utrecht	11	2	2	7	-12	-9.0	8
17	Volendam	12	2	2	8	-13	-4.1	8
18	Vitesse	12	2	2	8	-15	-7.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+20	+16.2	21
2	Feyenoord	6	5	1	0	+17	+11.9	16
3	Go Ahead Eagles	6	5	1	0	+15	+4.3	16
4	Twente	6	5	1	0	+7	+4.3	16
5	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
6	For Sittard	6	3	2	1	+3	+3.6	11
7	Heracles	6	3	1	2	-4	-3.6	10
8	Ajax	5	3	0	2	+3	+1.7	9
9	Nijmegen	6	2	2	2	+3	+1.5	8
10	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.7	8
11	Heerenveen	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.4	7
12	Excelsior	6	1	4	1	-1	+1.0	7
13	Volendam	6	2	1	3	-3	+2.2	7
14	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-3	+1.8	7
15	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-6	-4.3	6
16	Almere City	6	1	2	3	-7	-1.7	5
17	Utrecht	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.6	4
18	Vitesse	6	0	2	4	-8	-1.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+20	+12.4	15
2	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+10	+12.4	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+7	+1.1	13
4	Twente	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.0	11
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
6	Almere City	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.7	8
7	Excelsior	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.0	7
8	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-4	-5.8	7
9	Vitesse	6	2	0	4	-7	-5.7	6
10	Heerenveen	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.6	6
11	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
12	Utrecht	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.4	4
13	Nijmegen	5	0	3	2	-5	-9.5	3
14	Ajax	6	0	3	3	-6	-4.4	3
15	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
16	For Sittard	6	0	2	4	-11	-4.6	2
17	Heracles	6	0	2	4	-13	-6.8	2
18	Volendam	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.