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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Arouca

T T U S U

3–0

Full-time

Gil Vicente

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 19%

15%

23%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

38%

69%

Both score Ø 62%

46%

77%

Average goals

2,6

3,9

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,36 xG 1,46

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 7

11 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 17. · Gil Vicente 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	1	2	+13	+11.4	31
2	Porto	13	10	1	2	+12	+8.6	31
3	Benfica	13	9	3	1	+14	+16.8	30
4	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+16	+10.5	29
5	Guimaraes	13	8	1	4	+7	+3.2	25
6	Moreirense	13	6	4	3	+4	-0.5	22
7	Farense	14	5	3	6	+4	-8.0	18
8	Famalicao	13	4	5	4	-2	-4.1	17
9	Estrela	14	4	4	6	-3	-2.5	16
10	Boavista	13	4	3	6	-7	-6.0	15
11	Portimonense	13	4	3	6	-13	-6.5	15
12	Estoril	13	4	1	8	+1	-4.9	13
13	Casa Pia	13	3	4	6	-6	-4.0	13
14	Gil Vicente	13	3	3	7	-1	-6.1	12
15	Rio Ave	14	2	6	6	-7	+3.9	12
16	Vizela	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.0	11
17	Arouca	13	2	4	7	-4	-2.0	10
18	Chaves	13	3	1	9	-20	-6.9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+11	+8.6	21
2	Guimaraes	7	5	0	2	+8	+5.3	15
3	Benfica	6	4	2	0	+8	+10.0	14
4	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+10	+10.5	13
5	Porto	6	4	1	1	+4	+9.5	13
6	Gil Vicente	7	3	3	1	+8	-2.3	12
7	Farense	8	3	2	3	+4	-0.8	11
8	Estoril	6	3	1	2	+8	+2.4	10
9	Famalicao	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.4	10
10	Estrela	7	3	0	4	-1	-0.2	9
11	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-2	+3.3	9
12	Moreirense	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.1	8
13	Portimonense	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.9	8
14	Boavista	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.9	8
15	Chaves	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.4	7
16	Casa Pia	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5
17	Arouca	7	1	2	4	-4	-0.4	5
18	Vizela	7	1	2	4	-5	-0.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+8	-0.9	18
2	Sp Braga	7	5	1	1	+6	+0.0	16
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+6	+6.8	16
4	Moreirense	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.4	14
5	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.8	10
6	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-2.2	10
7	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-4	-1.9	8
8	Farense	6	2	1	3	+0	-7.2	7
9	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	-1	-2.8	7
10	Estrela	7	1	4	2	-2	-2.3	7
11	Boavista	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.0	7
12	Portimonense	7	2	1	4	-10	-4.6	7
13	Vizela	7	1	3	3	-3	-2.8	6
14	Arouca	6	1	2	3	+0	-1.6	5
15	Rio Ave	6	0	3	3	-5	+0.6	3
16	Estoril	7	1	0	6	-7	-7.3	3
17	Chaves	7	1	0	6	-18	-7.2	3
18	Gil Vicente	6	0	0	6	-9	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.