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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Milan

U U S T S

3–2

Full-time

Parma

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 20/21 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

19%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

55%

62%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

76%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,32 xG 1,66

61% Possession 39%

14 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

5 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 8. · Parma 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	22	17	2	3	+22	+14.9	53
2	Inter	20	14	5	1	+33	+22.8	47
3	Atalanta	22	14	4	4	+23	+15.9	46
4	Lazio	21	12	3	6	+9	+9.1	39
5	Juventus	22	8	13	1	+16	+10.9	37
6	Bologna	21	8	10	3	+6	+5.4	34
7	Fiorentina	20	9	6	5	+12	+9.2	33
8	Milan	20	8	7	5	+8	+13.0	31
9	Roma	21	7	6	8	+4	+1.8	27
10	Torino	22	6	8	8	-3	-7.1	26
11	Udinese	21	7	5	9	-8	-8.2	26
12	Genoa	21	5	8	8	-12	-9.1	23
13	Como	22	5	7	10	-9	+2.2	22
14	Empoli	22	4	9	9	-8	-10.7	21
15	Cagliari	22	5	6	11	-13	-7.9	21
16	Parma	21	4	8	9	-10	-13.9	20
17	Lecce	21	5	5	11	-21	-13.3	20
18	Verona	21	6	1	14	-23	-13.9	19
19	Venezia	21	3	6	12	-15	-13.6	15
20	Monza	21	2	7	12	-11	-7.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	9	0	2	+10	+12.2	27
2	Inter	11	7	3	1	+13	+10.0	24
3	Atalanta	10	7	1	2	+13	+8.0	22
4	Roma	11	7	0	4	+12	+6.9	21
5	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+5	+5.7	21
6	Juventus	11	4	7	0	+8	+8.6	19
7	Fiorentina	10	5	3	2	+5	+8.4	18
8	Milan	10	4	5	1	+9	+10.0	17
9	Bologna	10	4	5	1	+6	+8.1	17
10	Como	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.9	15
11	Udinese	10	4	2	4	-2	-2.6	14
12	Torino	11	3	4	4	-1	-4.3	13
13	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-8	-1.1	13
14	Parma	11	3	3	5	-2	-4.2	12
15	Cagliari	11	3	3	5	-7	-1.2	12
16	Venezia	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.5	11
17	Verona	11	3	1	7	-14	-4.4	10
18	Genoa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.2	9
19	Empoli	11	1	5	5	-7	-3.5	8
20	Monza	11	1	3	7	-6	-3.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+12	+2.7	26
2	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+10	+7.9	24
3	Inter	9	7	2	0	+20	+12.7	23
4	Juventus	11	4	6	1	+8	+2.3	18
5	Lazio	11	6	0	5	+4	+3.5	18
6	Bologna	11	4	5	2	+0	-2.7	17
7	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	+7	+0.7	15
8	Milan	10	4	2	4	-1	+3.0	14
9	Genoa	10	4	2	4	-6	-4.9	14
10	Empoli	11	3	4	4	-1	-7.2	13
11	Torino	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.7	13
12	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-6	-5.5	12
13	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-6	-6.7	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-9.4	9
15	Parma	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.7	8
16	Monza	10	1	4	5	-5	-4.2	7
17	Como	11	1	4	6	-9	-0.7	7
18	Lecce	11	2	1	8	-13	-12.2	7
19	Roma	10	0	6	4	-8	-5.0	6
20	Venezia	11	0	4	7	-13	-14.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.