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Eredivisie

Referee: E Blank

Utrecht

U U T T U

1–0

Full-time

NAC Breda

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 44%

52%

35%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

61%

Both score Ø 63%

74%

52%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,31 xG 0,50

57% Possession 43%

19 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 4. · NAC Breda 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	23	18	3	2	+33	+23.3	57
2	PSV Eindhoven	23	16	4	3	+45	+30.3	52
3	Feyenoord	23	12	7	4	+21	+18.6	43
4	Utrecht	23	12	7	4	+6	+0.2	43
5	Twente	21	11	6	4	+17	+16.4	39
6	AZ Alkmaar	21	11	4	6	+9	+10.8	37
7	Go Ahead Eagles	23	10	5	8	+4	+7.7	35
8	For Sittard	24	8	5	11	-11	-5.6	29
9	Heerenveen	22	7	6	9	-7	-0.6	27
10	Groningen	23	7	6	10	-10	-8.9	27
11	NAC Breda	23	8	3	12	-15	-13.0	27
12	Nijmegen	22	7	4	11	+2	+4.0	25
13	Zwolle	23	6	7	10	-8	-17.8	25
14	Willem II	23	6	6	11	-8	-18.4	24
15	Heracles	23	5	9	9	-15	-14.4	24
16	Sparta Rotterdam	23	4	8	11	-14	-2.6	20
17	Waalwijk	24	4	5	15	-17	-13.9	17
18	Almere City	23	3	5	15	-32	-16.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	12	11	1	0	+23	+17.6	34
2	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	3	0	+30	+18.1	30
3	Twente	10	7	3	0	+17	+13.9	24
4	Go Ahead Eagles	12	7	3	2	+10	+11.6	24
5	Feyenoord	11	7	2	2	+11	+13.1	23
6	Heerenveen	11	5	5	1	+7	+5.3	20
7	NAC Breda	12	6	2	4	+1	-0.7	20
8	Groningen	11	5	4	2	+6	+1.9	19
9	Zwolle	12	5	2	5	+1	-5.5	17
10	Utrecht	11	5	2	4	-4	+3.7	17
11	Nijmegen	12	4	4	4	+9	+8.2	16
12	Heracles	12	3	7	2	+2	+0.2	16
13	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	1	4	+2	+7.5	16
14	For Sittard	11	5	0	6	-5	+0.1	15
15	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-1	-6.9	12
16	Waalwijk	12	3	2	7	-3	-4.5	11
17	Sparta Rotterdam	11	1	5	5	-8	+0.7	8
18	Almere City	11	2	1	8	-19	-4.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	12	7	5	0	+10	-3.5	26
2	Ajax	11	7	2	2	+10	+5.7	23
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	1	3	+15	+12.1	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	3	2	+7	+3.3	21
5	Feyenoord	12	5	5	2	+10	+5.4	20
6	Twente	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.5	15
7	For Sittard	13	3	5	5	-6	-5.7	14
8	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-6	-3.3	12
9	Willem II	11	3	3	5	-7	-11.5	12
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	2	6	-6	-3.9	11
11	Nijmegen	10	3	0	7	-7	-4.2	9
12	Zwolle	11	1	5	5	-9	-12.3	8
13	Groningen	12	2	2	8	-16	-10.8	8
14	Heracles	11	2	2	7	-17	-14.6	8
15	Almere City	12	1	4	7	-13	-11.7	7
16	Heerenveen	11	2	1	8	-14	-5.8	7
17	NAC Breda	11	2	1	8	-16	-12.3	7
18	Waalwijk	12	1	3	8	-14	-9.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.