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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Paris SG

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Lille

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

4,7

3,7

Scored

4,2

2,7

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+3,7

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 63%

78%

48%

Points per game

2,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

70%

52%

Both score Ø 68%

74%

61%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

3,59 xG 1,07

58% Possession 42%

26 Shots 6

11 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Lille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	18	5	0	+40	+38.2	59
2	Marseille	23	14	4	5	+21	+12.5	46
3	Nice	24	13	7	4	+21	+15.5	46
4	Monaco	24	13	4	7	+17	+27.6	43
5	Lille	23	11	8	4	+15	+8.6	41
6	Lyon	23	10	6	7	+12	+6.0	36
7	Strasbourg	23	9	7	7	+5	-4.9	34
8	Lens	24	9	6	9	+0	+4.8	33
9	Brest	23	10	3	10	-3	-9.6	33
10	Toulouse	23	8	6	9	+1	+8.4	30
11	Auxerre	23	7	7	9	-3	-11.4	28
12	Angers	23	7	6	10	-8	-6.4	27
13	Rennes	23	8	2	13	-2	+1.8	26
14	Nantes	23	5	9	9	-12	-9.1	24
15	Reims	24	5	7	12	-12	-16.6	22
16	Le Havre	24	6	2	16	-27	-17.2	20
17	St Etienne	24	5	4	15	-32	-30.5	19
18	Montpellier	23	4	3	16	-33	-17.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+22	+19.8	29
2	Monaco	13	9	2	2	+16	+20.5	29
3	Nice	11	8	3	0	+18	+10.7	27
4	Lille	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.8	24
5	Auxerre	12	6	5	1	+10	+0.7	23
6	Rennes	13	7	1	5	+9	+5.2	22
7	Strasbourg	11	6	4	1	+8	+0.8	22
8	Lyon	11	6	2	3	+8	+6.2	20
9	Brest	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.7	20
10	Marseille	11	5	4	2	+7	+11.4	19
11	St Etienne	12	5	2	5	-2	-4.4	17
12	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	+0	+4.0	15
13	Lens	12	4	2	6	-3	+5.1	14
14	Nantes	11	3	4	4	-1	+1.4	13
15	Montpellier	12	3	3	6	-13	-4.2	12
16	Angers	11	3	2	6	-7	-7.1	11
17	Reims	12	2	4	6	-6	-5.0	10
18	Le Havre	12	2	0	10	-21	-12.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	9	3	0	+18	+18.4	30
2	Marseille	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.2	27
3	Nice	13	5	4	4	+3	+4.9	19
4	Lens	12	5	4	3	+3	-0.3	19
5	Lille	11	4	5	2	+7	+9.4	17
6	Lyon	12	4	4	4	+4	-0.3	16
7	Angers	12	4	4	4	-1	+0.8	16
8	Toulouse	11	4	3	4	+1	+4.4	15
9	Monaco	11	4	2	5	+1	+7.0	14
10	Le Havre	12	4	2	6	-6	-5.1	14
11	Brest	12	4	1	7	-9	-8.9	13
12	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	-5.7	12
13	Reims	12	3	3	6	-6	-11.7	12
14	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-11	-10.5	11
15	Auxerre	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.0	5
16	Rennes	10	1	1	8	-11	-3.4	4
17	Montpellier	11	1	0	10	-20	-13.6	3
18	St Etienne	12	0	2	10	-30	-26.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.