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Ekstraklasa

Referee: L Kuźma

Pogon Szczecin

S S S S S

0–3

Full-time

Lech Poznan

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pogon Szczecin Lech Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 60%

55%

64%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

45%

Both score Ø 39%

36%

41%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 11

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pogon Szczecin 4. · Lech Poznan 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	22	14	2	6	+22	+9.9	44
2	Rakow	22	12	7	3	+15	+11.6	43
3	Jagiellonia	22	12	6	4	+14	+2.6	42
4	Pogon Szczecin	22	12	3	7	+13	+9.1	39
5	Cracovia	23	10	8	5	+9	-3.3	38
6	Legia	22	10	6	6	+12	+10.2	36
7	Gornik Zabrze	23	10	4	9	+2	+4.0	34
8	Motor Lublin	22	9	5	8	-6	-2.7	32
9	GKS Katowice	22	8	6	8	+3	+2.1	30
10	Piast Gliwice	22	7	9	6	+3	-1.7	30
11	Korona Kielce	23	7	8	8	-8	-4.7	29
12	Widzew Lodz	23	7	6	10	-11	-4.5	27
13	Radomiak Radom	23	7	4	12	-7	+0.7	25
14	Stal Mielec	23	6	5	12	-7	+3.9	23
15	Puszcza	22	5	7	10	-10	-11.6	22
16	Zaglebie	22	6	4	12	-15	-6.1	22
17	Lechia Gdansk	22	5	6	11	-14	-15.3	21
18	Slask Wroclaw	22	2	8	12	-15	-4.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	12	10	0	2	+21	+8.3	30
2	Pogon Szczecin	11	9	1	1	+14	+10.1	28
3	Jagiellonia	11	7	3	1	+14	+4.4	24
4	Legia	11	7	2	2	+13	+8.2	23
5	Gornik Zabrze	12	6	2	4	+4	+6.1	20
6	Rakow	11	5	3	3	+6	+6.9	18
7	Stal Mielec	12	5	3	4	+2	+8.0	18
8	Motor Lublin	11	5	3	3	+1	-1.5	18
9	Widzew Lodz	11	5	2	4	-2	-0.6	17
10	Radomiak Radom	12	4	4	4	+4	+4.3	16
11	GKS Katowice	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.8	16
12	Piast Gliwice	11	3	6	2	+2	-0.6	15
13	Cracovia	12	3	6	3	+1	-1.7	15
14	Korona Kielce	11	4	2	5	-2	+1.7	14
15	Puszcza	10	3	4	3	-1	-2.7	13
16	Zaglebie	10	4	1	5	-3	-1.8	13
17	Lechia Gdansk	11	3	2	6	-8	-8.8	11
18	Slask Wroclaw	11	2	4	5	-3	-1.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	11	7	4	0	+9	+4.7	25
2	Cracovia	11	7	2	2	+8	-1.7	23
3	Jagiellonia	11	5	3	3	+0	-1.8	18
4	Piast Gliwice	11	4	3	4	+1	-1.0	15
5	Korona Kielce	12	3	6	3	-6	-6.4	15
6	Lech Poznan	10	4	2	4	+1	+1.6	14
7	GKS Katowice	11	4	2	5	-1	+3.9	14
8	Gornik Zabrze	11	4	2	5	-2	-2.1	14
9	Motor Lublin	11	4	2	5	-7	-1.2	14
10	Legia	11	3	4	4	-1	+2.0	13
11	Pogon Szczecin	11	3	2	6	-1	-1.0	11
12	Lechia Gdansk	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.6	10
13	Widzew Lodz	12	2	4	6	-9	-3.9	10
14	Puszcza	12	2	3	7	-9	-8.8	9
15	Radomiak Radom	11	3	0	8	-11	-3.6	9
16	Zaglebie	12	2	3	7	-12	-4.4	9
17	Stal Mielec	11	1	2	8	-9	-4.1	5
18	Slask Wroclaw	11	0	4	7	-12	-3.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.