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Conference League
Referee: D Chiffi
Crystal Palace
U T T S S
3–1
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 4/8 matches
Win Ø 63%
50%
75%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 32%
0%
63%
Both score Ø 13%
0%
25%
Average goals
1,0
3,5
Scored
0,8
2,4
Conceded
0,3
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,82 xG 1,18
35% Possession 65%
21 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 1
3 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Crystal Palace AZ Alkmaar
Ismaïla Sarr ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
16′
1–0 M. Lacroix ⚽
M. Guehi
22′
Maxence Lacroix ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
25′
2–0 I. Sarr ⚽
M. Lacroix
45′
Half-time 2–0
Ismaïla Sarr 🟨
52′
54′
⚽ S. Mijnans 2–1
K. Smit
3–1 I. Sarr ⚽
J. Mateta
57′
61′
🔁 I. Jensen
↦ Weslley Patati
61′
🔁 M. de Wit
↦ E. Dijkstra
D. Kamada 🔁
↦ I. Sarr
65′
A. Wharton 🔁
↦ W. Hughes
65′
67′
🟨 Ibrahim Sadiq
J. Devenny 🔁
↦ Y. Pino
73′
74′
🔁 L. Zeefuik
↦ T. Parrott
75′
🟨 Kees Smit
80′
🔁 M. Dekker
↦ P. Koopmeiners
80′
🔁 K. Boogaard
↦ K. Smit
C. Uche 🔁
↦ J. Mateta
86′
N. Clyne 🔁
↦ D. Munoz
86′
Marc Guéhi 🟨
93′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1
1 D. Henderson G
26 C. Richards D
5 M. Lacroix D
6 M. Guehi D
2 D. Munoz M
19 W. Hughes M
8 J. Lerma M
3 T. Mitchell M
7 I. Sarr F
10 Y. Pino F
14 J. Mateta F
Bench (10)
31 R. Matthews
44 W. Benitez
12 C. Uche
17 N. Clyne
18 D. Kamada
20 A. Wharton
21 R. Esse
23 J. Canvot
24 B. Sosa
55 J. Devenny

Coach: Oliver Glasner

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
22 E. Dijkstra D
3 W. Goes D
5 Penetra D
15 M. Chavez Garcia D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
10 S. Mijnans M
26 K. Smit M
7 Weslley Patati F
9 T. Parrott F
11 I. Sadiq F
Bench (10)
12 H. Verhulst
41 J. Zoet
4 M. Dekker
14 A. Natali
17 I. Jensen
23 B. van Duijl
25 L. Zeefuik
34 M. de Wit
60 S. van Duijn
74 K. Boogaard

Coach: Leeroy Echteld

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Chiffi · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.