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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Arsenal

T S T T S

0–3

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 7/6 matches

Win Ø 62%

57%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

57%

67%

Both score Ø 38%

43%

33%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 9

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 10. · Aston Villa 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	8	6	0	2	+9	18
2	Tottenham	8	5	2	1	+10	17
3	Liverpool	8	5	2	1	+2	17
4	Southampton	8	5	1	2	+4	16
5	Chelsea	8	4	3	1	+10	15
6	Everton	8	4	1	3	+2	13
7	Crystal Palace	8	4	1	3	+0	13
8	Wolves	8	4	1	3	-1	13
9	Aston Villa	6	4	0	2	+6	12
10	Arsenal	7	4	0	3	+2	12
11	Man City	7	3	3	1	+1	12
12	West Ham	8	3	2	3	+4	11
13	Newcastle	8	3	2	3	-3	11
14	Man United	7	3	1	3	-2	10
15	Leeds	8	3	1	4	-3	10
16	Brighton	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Fulham	8	1	1	6	-8	4
18	West Brom	8	0	3	5	-11	3
19	Burnley	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Southampton	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+5	7
4	Everton	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Aston Villa	4	2	0	2	+2	6
9	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Leicester	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Man City	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Fulham	4	1	0	3	-5	3
16	Brighton	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	West Brom	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Man United	4	0	1	3	-8	1
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Man United	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Chelsea	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Man City	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Southampton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Arsenal	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Leeds	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Everton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Wolves	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-3	6
13	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Liverpool	4	1	2	1	-3	5
15	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
16	Brighton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-3	1
19	West Brom	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.