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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Arouca

S U T T U

2–1

Full-time

Gil Vicente

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 32%

19%

44%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

30% Possession 70%

6 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 12

4 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Gil Vicente 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	27	23	4	0	+49	73
2	Sp Lisbon	27	21	4	2	+37	67
3	Benfica	28	19	4	5	+42	61
4	Sp Braga	28	15	7	6	+18	52
5	Gil Vicente	27	12	10	5	+12	46
6	Guimaraes	27	10	6	11	+0	36
7	Estoril	27	8	10	9	-1	34
8	Maritimo	27	8	9	10	-3	33
9	Pacos Ferreira	27	8	9	10	-7	33
10	Santa Clara	27	7	10	10	-13	31
11	Portimonense	28	7	8	13	-8	29
12	Famalicao	27	6	10	11	-8	28
13	Boavista	27	4	15	8	-9	27
14	Vizela	27	5	11	11	-16	26
15	Arouca	27	5	8	14	-23	23
16	Tondela	27	6	4	17	-21	22
17	Belenenses	28	4	9	15	-29	21
18	Moreirense	27	4	8	15	-20	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+19	34
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+19	29
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+12	28
5	Guimaraes	13	7	2	4	+6	23
6	Santa Clara	14	6	5	3	-3	23
7	Gil Vicente	14	5	5	4	+4	20
8	Boavista	14	3	9	2	+2	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	5	5	-3	17
10	Maritimo	13	3	6	4	+2	15
11	Estoril	13	3	6	4	+0	15
12	Famalicao	13	3	6	4	-1	15
13	Vizela	14	3	6	5	-5	15
14	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-14	15
15	Tondela	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Moreirense	13	3	3	7	-4	12
17	Arouca	13	3	2	8	-16	11
18	Portimonense	14	2	4	8	-8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	2	0	+24	38
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+23	32
4	Gil Vicente	13	7	5	1	+8	26
5	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+6	24
6	Portimonense	14	5	4	5	+0	19
7	Estoril	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Maritimo	14	5	3	6	-5	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	4	5	-4	16
10	Guimaraes	14	3	4	7	-6	13
11	Famalicao	14	3	4	7	-7	13
12	Arouca	14	2	6	6	-7	12
13	Vizela	13	2	5	6	-11	11
14	Boavista	13	1	6	6	-11	9
15	Santa Clara	13	1	5	7	-10	8
16	Tondela	13	2	2	9	-14	8
17	Moreirense	14	1	5	8	-16	8
18	Belenenses	14	0	6	8	-15	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.