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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Burnley

S U T T T

0–2

Full-time

Man City

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 27/29 matches

Win Ø 44%

11%

76%

Points per game

0,8

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

37%

52%

Both score Ø 39%

44%

34%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,4

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

23% Possession 77%

3 Shots 18

1 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 8

5 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 19. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	30	22	6	2	+57	72
2	Man City	29	22	4	3	+50	70
3	Chelsea	28	17	8	3	+38	59
4	Arsenal	28	17	3	8	+13	54
5	Tottenham	29	16	3	10	+11	51
6	Man United	29	14	8	7	+8	50
7	West Ham	30	14	6	10	+10	48
8	Wolves	30	14	4	12	+5	46
9	Aston Villa	29	11	3	15	+1	36
10	Leicester	27	10	6	11	-4	36
11	Southampton	29	8	11	10	-9	35
12	Crystal Palace	29	7	13	9	+1	34
13	Brighton	29	7	12	10	-10	33
14	Newcastle	29	7	10	12	-17	31
15	Brentford	30	8	6	16	-14	30
16	Leeds	30	7	8	15	-33	29
17	Everton	27	7	4	16	-18	25
18	Watford	30	6	4	20	-28	22
19	Burnley	27	3	12	12	-16	21
20	Norwich	29	4	5	20	-45	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+32	39
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	15	10	2	3	+12	32
4	Tottenham	14	9	1	4	+10	28
5	West Ham	15	8	3	4	+7	27
6	Man United	15	8	3	4	+6	27
7	Chelsea	13	7	5	1	+18	26
8	Leicester	14	7	3	4	+5	24
9	Southampton	15	5	7	3	+6	22
10	Wolves	15	6	2	7	+1	20
11	Crystal Palace	15	4	7	4	+5	19
12	Everton	14	6	1	7	+0	19
13	Aston Villa	14	5	3	6	+3	18
14	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
15	Brentford	15	5	2	8	-3	17
16	Leeds	15	4	4	7	-12	16
17	Brighton	15	3	5	7	-10	14
18	Burnley	13	2	6	5	-6	12
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-21	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	3	1	+20	36
2	Liverpool	15	10	3	2	+25	33
3	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+20	33
4	Wolves	15	8	2	5	+4	26
5	Man United	14	6	5	3	+2	23
6	Tottenham	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Arsenal	13	7	1	5	+1	22
8	West Ham	15	6	3	6	+3	21
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Aston Villa	15	6	0	9	-2	18
11	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
12	Watford	16	4	3	9	-8	15
13	Brentford	15	3	4	8	-11	13
14	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-12	13
15	Southampton	14	3	4	7	-15	13
16	Leeds	15	3	4	8	-21	13
17	Leicester	13	3	3	7	-9	12
18	Burnley	14	1	6	7	-10	9
19	Norwich	14	2	2	10	-24	8
20	Everton	13	1	3	9	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.