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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Gil Vicente

S T S S T

2–3

Full-time

Benfica

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gil Vicente Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,5

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,09 xG 2,64

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

1 Corners 5

0 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Gil Vicente 7. · Benfica 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.8	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
4	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.1	6
5	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.8	5
6	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	+0.8	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.4	3
9	Farense	3	1	0	2	+1	-1.8	3
10	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
11	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.6	3
12	Estoril	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
13	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.8	3
14	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.5	3
15	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
16	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
17	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.2	1
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-9	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
2	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+5	+0.6	3
3	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.3	3
4	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.6	3
5	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	+3.0	3
6	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
7	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
8	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
9	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
10	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
11	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
12	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
13	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
14	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
15	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
17	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.5	0
18	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
2	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.5	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
5	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
8	Arouca	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
9	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.3	1
11	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
12	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
13	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
14	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
15	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
16	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.6	0
17	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.