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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Fulham

S S T T U

3–1

Full-time

Burnley

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 27%

40%

13%

Points per game

1,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

57%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

60%

57%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,15 xG 1,24

56% Possession 44%

22 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fulham 12. · Burnley 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	31	21	7	3	+39	+30.4	70
2	Man City	30	18	7	5	+32	+22.2	61
3	Man United	31	15	10	6	+13	+14.8	55
4	Aston Villa	30	15	6	9	+3	-7.0	51
5	Liverpool	31	14	7	10	+8	+13.5	49
6	Chelsea	30	13	9	8	+18	+17.7	48
7	Brentford	30	13	6	11	+4	+7.0	45
8	Brighton	31	11	10	10	+4	+4.7	43
9	Everton	30	12	7	11	-1	-8.1	43
10	Newcastle	30	12	6	12	+0	+7.9	42
11	Bournemouth	31	9	15	7	-2	+3.5	42
12	Fulham	30	12	5	13	-3	-5.3	41
13	Sunderland	30	10	10	10	-5	-16.1	40
14	Crystal Palace	30	10	9	11	-2	+6.3	39
15	Leeds	30	7	11	12	-11	-1.6	32
16	Tottenham	30	7	9	14	-7	-13.8	30
17	Nott'm Forest	30	7	8	15	-15	-10.0	29
18	West Ham	30	7	8	15	-19	-13.1	29
19	Burnley	30	4	8	18	-26	-33.4	20
20	Wolves	31	3	8	20	-30	-19.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+26	+17.5	38
2	Man City	15	11	3	1	+25	+14.4	36
3	Man United	15	10	3	2	+13	+13.9	33
4	Aston Villa	15	9	2	4	+6	-0.0	29
5	Liverpool	15	8	4	3	+10	+9.8	28
6	Brighton	16	7	6	3	+7	+5.6	27
7	Brentford	15	7	5	3	+9	+9.9	26
8	Sunderland	15	7	5	3	+8	-4.2	26
9	Fulham	15	8	2	5	+6	+0.0	26
10	Bournemouth	16	6	8	2	+6	+11.6	26
11	Newcastle	15	8	2	5	+4	+9.3	26
12	Chelsea	15	6	5	4	+6	+8.9	23
13	Leeds	15	6	4	5	+2	+6.6	22
14	Everton	15	5	4	6	-1	-1.1	19
15	Crystal Palace	15	3	7	5	-4	+7.9	16
16	Nott'm Forest	15	3	5	7	-6	+1.0	14
17	West Ham	15	3	4	8	-10	-3.3	13
18	Wolves	16	3	3	10	-14	-8.3	12
19	Burnley	15	2	5	8	-8	-13.1	11
20	Tottenham	15	2	4	9	-7	-4.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	9	5	2	+13	+13.0	32
2	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+12	+8.8	25
3	Man City	15	7	4	4	+7	+7.8	25
4	Everton	15	7	3	5	+0	-7.0	24
5	Crystal Palace	15	7	2	6	+2	-1.6	23
6	Man United	16	5	7	4	+0	+0.9	22
7	Aston Villa	15	6	4	5	-3	-7.0	22
8	Liverpool	16	6	3	7	-2	+3.6	21
9	Tottenham	15	5	5	5	+0	-9.4	20
10	Brentford	15	6	1	8	-5	-2.9	19
11	Brighton	15	4	4	7	-3	-0.9	16
12	Newcastle	15	4	4	7	-4	-1.3	16
13	Bournemouth	15	3	7	5	-8	-8.1	16
14	West Ham	15	4	4	7	-9	-9.8	16
15	Fulham	15	4	3	8	-9	-5.3	15
16	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-9	-11.0	15
17	Sunderland	15	3	5	7	-13	-11.9	14
18	Leeds	15	1	7	7	-13	-8.2	10
19	Burnley	15	2	3	10	-18	-20.3	9
20	Wolves	15	0	5	10	-16	-11.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.