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Premier League

Referee: T Bramall

Burnley

T S S T T

1–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,85 xG 1,10

37% Possession 63%

12 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 7

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 17. · Nott'm Forest 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+6	+3.0	15
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+8	+4.1	9
3	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+7	+0.2	9
4	Bournemouth	4	3	0	1	+1	+2.5	9
5	Chelsea	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.1	8
6	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.1	7
7	Everton	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.0	7
8	Man City	4	2	0	2	+4	+3.0	6
9	Crystal Palace	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.2	6
10	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.3	5
11	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.9	5
12	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.5	4
13	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.2	4
14	Man United	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.4	4
15	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.2	4
16	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.2	4
17	Burnley	4	1	0	3	-3	-6.1	3
18	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-7	-1.2	3
19	Aston Villa	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.3	2
20	Wolves	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.3	6
3	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.5	6
4	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
6	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
7	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
8	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
9	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
10	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
11	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
12	Man City	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.5	3
13	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.3	3
14	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
15	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.6	3
16	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
17	Crystal Palace	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
18	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.7	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.3	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.2	6
3	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+4	+1.8	4
4	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.6	4
5	Man City	2	1	0	1	+3	+1.5	3
6	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
7	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
8	Everton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.7	3
9	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.9	3
10	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
11	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
12	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
13	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
14	Man United	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
15	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
16	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
17	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
18	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.0	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.8	0
20	Leeds	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.