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Europa League
Referee: J Brisard
Atalanta
T S U S T
1–0
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,14 xG 0,07
64% Possession 36%
15 Shots 4
3 Shots on target 0
7 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 1
2 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 20
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Oct -23 Sturm Graz – Atalanta 2–2

Match report

Atalanta Sturm Graz
Half-time 0–0
H. Hateboer 🔁
↦ D. Zappacosta
46′
47′
🟨 Jon Gorenc Stanković
1–0 B. Djimsiti ⚽
50′
59′
🔁 T. Horvat
↦ W. Bøving
59′
🔁 Bryan Teixeira
↦ S. Włodarczyk
M. Pašalić 🔁
↦ A. Lookman
62′
L. Muriel 🔁
↦ G. Scamacca
62′
79′
🔁 M. Fuseini
↦ D. Affengruber
81′
🟨 David Schnegg
Aleksey Miranchuk 🔁
↦ T. Koopmeiners
86′
86′
🔁 A. Dante
↦ D. Schnegg
E. Holm 🔁
↦ M. Bakker
89′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 J. Musso G
2 R. Tolói D
19 B. Djimsiti D
23 S. Kolašinac D
77 D. Zappacosta M
15 M. de Roon M
13 Éderson M
20 M. Bakker M
7 T. Koopmeiners F
11 A. Lookman F
90 G. Scamacca F
Bench (11)
33 H. Hateboer
8 M. Pašalić
9 L. Muriel
59 Aleksey Miranchuk
3 E. Holm
21 N. Zortea
29 M. Carnesecchi
25 M. Adopo
43 G. Bonfanti
44 L. Mendicino
31 F. Rossi

Coach: G. Gasperini

Sturm Graz

4-4-2
1 K. Scherpen G
22 J. Gazibegović D
42 D. Affengruber D
5 G. Wüthrich D
28 D. Schnegg D
15 W. Bøving M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
24 D. Lavalée M
8 A. Prass M
11 M. Sarkaria F
9 S. Włodarczyk F
Bench (10)
19 T. Horvat
17 Bryan Teixeira
29 M. Fuseini
44 A. Dante
14 Javi Serrano
43 H. Obi
21 S. Stückler
31 L. Marić
38 L. Grgić
6 A. Borković

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Brisard · 168 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.