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Bundesliga
Referee: M Hameter
LASK
T S S T U
3–1
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

LASK Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
25%
50%
Both score Ø 46%
42%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,4
1,7
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

48% Possession 52%
16 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
4 Corners 2
2 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 21
5 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match LASK 3. · Sturm Graz 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 13 9 2 2 +21 29
2 Sturm Graz 12 8 3 1 +12 27
3 LASK 12 6 4 2 +7 22
4 Hartberg 13 6 4 3 +5 22
5 A. Klagenfurt 13 5 6 2 +2 21
6 SK Rapid 13 4 6 3 +12 18
7 Austria Vienna 13 5 3 5 +1 18
8 Wolfsberger AC 13 4 5 4 +0 17
9 Altach 13 3 4 6 -8 13
10 BW Linz 13 3 4 6 -11 13
11 Tirol 13 1 2 10 -17 5
12 A. Lustenau 13 0 3 10 -24 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

5. Aug -23 Sturm Graz – LASK 2–0 3. Jun -23 Sturm Graz – LASK 2–0 9. Apr -23 LASK – Sturm Graz 2–1 13. Nov -22 LASK – Sturm Graz 1–1 20. Aug -22 Sturm Graz – LASK 0–1

Match report

LASK Sturm Graz
Ibrahim Mustapha 🟨
-5′
George Bello 🟨
3′
5′
ℹ️ William Bøving
VAR: Goal cancelled
Robert Žulj 🟨
17′
29′
🟨 Alexander Prass
Sascha Horvath 🟨
35′
1–0 M. Usor ⚽
R. Žulj
36′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 F. Stojković ⚽
R. Žulj
46′
46′
🔁 S. Włodarczyk
↦ M. Sarkaria
46′
🔁 T. Horvat
↦ A. Dante
54′
🟨 Bryan Silva Teixeira
Filip Stojković 🟨
58′
60′
⚽ S. Włodarczyk 2–1
Bryan Teixeira
64′
🔁 M. Johnston
↦ W. Bøving
64′
🔁 S. Hierländer
↦ Javi Serrano
F. Flecker 🔁
↦ F. Stojković
74′
H. Balić 🔁
↦ I. Mustapha
74′
78′
🔁 M. Fuseini
↦ A. Prass
P. Michorl 🔁
↦ I. Ljubic
82′
3–1 R. Žulj ⚽
S. Horvath
91′
L. Pintor 🔁
↦ M. Usor
93′
96′
🟨 Max Johnston
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

LASK

3-4-3
1 T. Lawal G
5 P. Ziereis D
16 A. Andrade D
4 M. Talovierov D
22 F. Stojković M
21 I. Ljubic M
30 S. Horvath M
2 G. Bello M
23 I. Mustapha F
10 R. Žulj F
17 M. Usor F
Bench (7)
29 F. Flecker
14 H. Balić
8 P. Michorl
19 L. Pintor
33 F. Luckeneder
28 J. Siebenhandl
27 T. Goiginger

Coach: T. Sageder

Sturm Graz

4-2-3-1
1 K. Scherpen G
22 J. Gazibegović D
42 D. Affengruber D
5 G. Wüthrich D
44 A. Dante D
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
14 Javi Serrano M
17 Bryan Teixeira M
8 A. Prass M
15 W. Bøving M
11 M. Sarkaria F
Bench (7)
9 S. Włodarczyk
19 T. Horvat
2 M. Johnston
25 S. Hierländer
29 M. Fuseini
24 D. Lavalée
31 L. Marić

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Hameter · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.