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Conference League
Referee: Luís Godinho
Aston Villa
U S S S T
2–1
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 5/7 matches
Win Ø 62%
80%
43%
Points per game
2,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
80%
43%
Both score Ø 49%
40%
57%
Average goals
3,8
3,4
Scored
3,0
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,44 xG 0,73
64% Possession 36%
12 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 1
1 Offside 8
7 Free kicks against 12
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Oct -23 AZ Alkmaar – Aston Villa 1–4

Match report

Aston Villa AZ Alkmaar
Clément Lenglet ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
5′
Half-time 0–1
52′
⚽ V. Pavlidis 0–1
R. Bazoer
1–1 Diego Carlos ⚽
L. Bailey
61′
69′
🔁 D. Mihailović
↦ D. de Wit
69′
🔁 E. Poku
↦ I. Sadiq
69′
🔁 M. van Brederode
↦ R. van Bommel
M. Cash 🔁
↦ E. Konsa
74′
N. Zaniolo 🔁
↦ M. Diaby
74′
Douglas Luiz 🔁
↦ Y. Tielemans
74′
2–1 O. Watkins ⚽
Douglas Luiz
81′
88′
🔁 Tiago Dantas
↦ J. Clasie
88′
🔁 J. Odgaard
↦ S. Mijnans
Pau Torres 🔁
↦ Diego Carlos
90′
B. Traoré 🔁
↦ L. Bailey
90′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
1 E. Martínez G
4 E. Konsa D
3 Diego Carlos D
17 C. Lenglet D
12 L. Digne D
8 Y. Tielemans M
44 B. Kamara M
31 L. Bailey M
19 M. Diaby M
7 J. McGinn M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (11)
2 M. Cash
22 N. Zaniolo
6 Douglas Luiz
14 Pau Torres
9 B. Traoré
15 Álex Moreno
32 L. Dendoncker
42 F. Marschall
16 C. Chambers
24 J. Durán
25 R. Olsen

Coach: Unai Emery

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 M. Ryan G
2 Y. Sugawara D
25 R. Bazoer D
4 B. Martins Indi D
18 D. Møller Wolfe D
8 J. Clasie M
10 D. de Wit M
16 S. Mijnans M
11 I. Sadiq F
9 V. Pavlidis F
15 R. van Bommel F
Bench (12)
14 D. Mihailović
21 E. Poku
19 M. van Brederode
6 Tiago Dantas
7 J. Odgaard
30 D. Kasius
28 K. Goudmijn
22 M. Dekker
31 D. Deen
5 Alexandre Penetra
33 W. Goes
12 H. Verhulst

Coach: P. Jansen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Luís Godinho · 162 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.