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Conference League
Referee: O Derevinskyi
AZ Alkmaar
T U T T S
1–0
Full-time
Zrinjski
U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Zrinjski
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 8/4 matches
Win Ø 32%
38%
25%
Points per game
1,4
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 57%
63%
50%
Average goals
3,4
3,3
Scored
1,6
1,3
Conceded
1,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,26 xG 0,15
72% Possession 28%
20 Shots 2
6 Shots on target 0
5 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
21 Corners 2
3 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 4
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Sep -23 Zrinjski – AZ Alkmaar 4–3

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Zrinjski
Ernest Poku ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
24′
Alexandre Penetra 🔁
↦ R. Bazoer
43′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 V. Pavlidis ⚽
59′
60′
🟨 Matija Malekinušić
60′
🔁 F. Sabljić
↦ A. Hrvanović
66′
🔁 T. Kiš
↦ M. Senić
Alexandre Penetra 🟨
68′
D. Kasius 🔁
↦ Y. Sugawara
81′
J. Addai 🔁
↦ R. van Bommel
81′
D. de Wit 🔁
↦ D. Mihailović
82′
83′
🔁 A. Balić
↦ F. Bradarić
84′
🔁 P. Mišić
↦ M. Ćuže
K. Goudmijn 🔁
↦ Tiago Dantas
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
1 M. Ryan G
2 Y. Sugawara D
25 R. Bazoer D
4 B. Martins Indi D
18 D. Møller Wolfe D
8 J. Clasie M
6 Tiago Dantas M
21 E. Poku M
14 D. Mihailović M
15 R. van Bommel M
9 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (12)
5 Alexandre Penetra
30 D. Kasius
59 J. Addai
10 D. de Wit
28 K. Goudmijn
22 M. Dekker
7 J. Odgaard
12 H. Verhulst
33 W. Goes
29 M. Meerdink
20 R. Owusu-Oduro
19 M. van Brederode

Coach: P. Jansen

Zrinjski

4-3-3
35 M. Marić G
6 J. Ćorluka D
95 M. Senić D
15 S. Radić D
17 M. Malekinušić D
26 F. Bradarić M
8 D. Zlomislić M
20 A. Ivančić M
22 A. Hrvanović F
99 N. Bilbija F
25 M. Ćuže F
Bench (9)
9 F. Sabljić
10 T. Kiš
14 A. Balić
24 P. Mišić
55 O. Niron
29 A. Prskalo
1 A. Sefo
2 L. Marin
5 D. Čanađija

Coach: M. Ivanković

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

O Derevinskyi · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
16,0 / match
Below average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.