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Europa League
Referee: Elcin Masiyev
Freiburg
T U S S T
1–0
Full-time
Salzburg
U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Salzburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
60%
20%
Points per game
2,2
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
40%
40%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
1,6
1,0
Conceded
0,6
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,61 xG 0,43
59% Possession 41%
28 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 3
11 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
10 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Freiburg Salzburg
37′
ℹ️ Petar Ratkov
VAR: Card upgrade
38′
🟥 Petar Ratkov
Half-time 0–0
46′
🟨 Stefan Lainer
46′
🔁 T. Trummer
↦ C. Bischoff
1–0 P. Lienhart ⚽
J. Beste
50′
63′
🔁 M. K. Yeo
↦ S. Diabate
L. Kubler 🔁
↦ P. Treu
70′
I. Matanovic 🔁
↦ J. Adamu
70′
76′
🔁 K. Konate
↦ E. Baidoo
76′
🔁 K. Alajbegovic
↦ Y. Vertessen
A. Jung 🔁
↦ P. Lienhart
78′
L. Holer 🔁
↦ V. Grifo
78′
Lukas Kübler 🟨
80′
P. Osterhage 🔁
↦ J. Manzambi
85′
Yuito Suzuki 🟨
89′
89′
🔁 K. Onisiwo
↦ S. Lainer
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Freiburg

4-2-3-1
1 N. Atubolu G
29 P. Treu D
28 M. Ginter D
3 P. Lienhart D
30 C. Gunter D
8 M. Eggestein M
44 J. Manzambi M
19 J. Beste M
14 Y. Suzuki M
32 V. Grifo M
20 J. Adamu F
Bench (12)
21 F. Muller
24 J. Huth
5 A. Jung
6 P. Osterhage
7 D. Scherhant
9 L. Holer
17 L. Kubler
22 C. Irie
27 N. Hofler
31 I. Matanovic
33 J. Makengo
43 B. Ogbus

Coach: Julian Schuster

Salzburg

4-2-3-1
1 A. Schlager G
22 S. Lainer D
23 J. Gadou D
2 J. Rasmussen D
3 A. Terzic D
18 M. Bidstrup M
5 S. Diabate M
20 E. Baidoo M
11 Y. Vertessen M
7 C. Bischoff M
21 P. Ratkov F
Bench (12)
52 C. Zawieschitzky
92 S. Hamzic
9 K. Onisiwo
13 F. Kratzig
15 M. Diambou
19 K. Konate
27 K. Alajbegovic
25 O. Lukic
37 T. Trummer
38 V. Sulzbacher
43 E. Aguilar
49 M. K. Yeo

Coach: Daniel Beichler

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.