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Europa League
Referee: Damian Sylwestrzak
Sturm Graz
T T S T S
0–1
Full-time
FK Crvena Zvezda
U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz FK Crvena Zvezda
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,8
1,8
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
20%
40%
Points per game
0,8
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
60%
20%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
2,2
1,8
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,50 xG 1,57
59% Possession 41%
16 Shots 15
1 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 7
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 5
3 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 21
3 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sturm Graz FK Crvena Zvezda
Arjan Malić 🟨
11′
16′
🟨 Marko Arnautović
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 Bruno Duarte
↦ M. Arnautovic
54′
ℹ️ Nair Tiknizyan
VAR: Goal cancelled
55′
⚽ M. Ivanic 0–1
T. Elsnik
A. Kayombo 🔁
↦ S. Jatta
66′
J. Hodl 🔁
↦ T. Chukwuani
66′
69′
🟨 Mirko Ivanić
69′
🟨 Rodrigão
Tomi Horvat ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
70′
78′
🟨 Rade Krunić
K. Bendra 🔁
↦ A. Malic
79′
S. Hierlander 🔁
↦ E. Karic
79′
B. Beganovic 🔁
↦ M. Malone
79′
82′
🔁 M. Bajo
↦ Milson
87′
🔁 A. Katai
↦ M. Ivanic
Kristjan Bendra 🟨
89′
95′
🔁 V. Kostov
↦ T. Handel
Jeyland Mitchell 🟨
98′
98′
🟨 Aleksandar Katai
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-1-3-2
1 O. Christensen G
23 A. Malic D
2 J. Mitchell D
47 E. Aiwu D
17 E. Karic D
4 J. Gorenc Stankovic M
19 T. Horvat M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
21 T. Chukwuani M
20 S. Jatta F
77 M. Malone F
Bench (12)
40 M. Bignetti
53 D. Khudyakov
11 A. Kayombo
14 K. Bendra
22 J. Beck
25 S. Hierlander
26 B. Beganovic
27 G. Haider
35 N. Geyrhofer
39 L. Weinhandl
43 J. Hodl
46 J. Wolf

Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

FK Crvena Zvezda

4-2-3-1
1 Matheus G
66 Seol Young-Woo D
13 M. Veljkovic D
5 Rodrigo D
23 N. Tiknizyan D
33 R. Krunic M
21 T. Elsnik M
20 T. Handel M
4 M. Ivanic M
7 Milson M
89 M. Arnautovic F
Bench (12)
18 O. Glazer
77 I. Gutesa
6 M. Bajo
10 A. Katai
17 Bruno Duarte
19 A. Damjanovic
22 V. Kostov
24 N. Stankovic
25 S. Lekovic
40 L. Zaric
71 A. Avdic
80 S. Babicka

Coach: Dejan Stankovic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Damian Sylwestrzak · 14 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.