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Europa League
Referee: Halil Umut Meler
Basel
T U T U S
1–2
Full-time
Aston Villa
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,5
Scored
1,2
2,5
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 60%
40%
80%
Points per game
1,2
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
60%
40%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
2,8
2,2
Scored
1,4
1,6
Conceded
1,4
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,88 xG 0,47
43% Possession 57%
11 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 4
7 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Basel Aston Villa
12′
⚽ E. Guessand 0–1
17′
🟨 Matty Cash
Leo Leroy ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
29′
1–1 F. Daniliuc ⚽
X. Shaqiri
34′
35′
🟨 Emiliano Buendía
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 Y. Tielemans
↦ M. Cash
53′
⚽ Y. Tielemans 1–2
E. Buendia
A. Ajeti 🔁
↦ X. Shaqiri
62′
64′
🔁 O. Watkins
↦ J. Sancho
64′
🔁 M. Rogers
↦ E. Buendia
64′
🔁 B. Kamara
↦ A. Onana
Leo Leroy 🟨
72′
K. Koindredi 🔁
↦ A. Bacanin
74′
I. Salah 🔁
↦ B. Traore
74′
79′
🔁 J. McGinn
↦ D. Malen
Philip Otele 🟨
80′
84′
🟨 Ezri Konsa
M. Broschinski 🔁
↦ L. Leroy
85′
M. Soticek 🔁
↦ P. Otele
85′
87′
🟨 John McGinn
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Basel

4-1-4-1
1 M. Hitz G
6 K. Tsunemoto D
32 J. Adjetey D
24 F. Daniliuc D
31 D. Schmid D
5 Metinho M
11 B. Traore M
22 L. Leroy M
14 A. Bacanin M
7 P. Otele M
10 X. Shaqiri F
Bench (12)
13 M. Salvi
47 T. Pfeiffer
3 N. Vouilloz
8 K. Koindredi
17 M. Broschinski
19 M. Soticek
21 I. Salah
23 A. Ajeti
26 A. Barisic
27 K. Ruegg
29 M. Cisse
39 Junior Ze

Coach: Stephan Lichtsteiner

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
40 M. Bizot G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
3 V. Lindelof D
12 L. Digne D
26 L. Bogarde M
24 A. Onana M
29 E. Guessand M
10 E. Buendia M
19 J. Sancho M
17 D. Malen F
Bench (10)
64 J. Wright
95 R. Oakley
7 J. McGinn
8 Y. Tielemans
11 O. Watkins
16 A. Garcia
22 I. Maatsen
27 M. Rogers
44 B. Kamara
53 G. Hemmings

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Halil Umut Meler · 39 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.