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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Stoke

U U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,8

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+2,0

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

7,0

Scored

0,0

4,0

Conceded

1,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

22% Possession 78%

11 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 9

4 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 11

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 15. · Arsenal 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Watford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-4	1
14	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
12	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-3	0
15	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Watford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.