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Premier League
Referee: Michael Oliver
Cardiff
T U U T T
0–5
Full-time
Man City
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
0%
83%
Points per game
0,5
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
0,5
2,5
Conceded
1,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+2,0
This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
0%
80%
Points per game
0,4
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
40%
60%
Both score Ø 50%
40%
60%
Average goals
2,4
3,4
Scored
0,6
2,8
Conceded
1,8
0,6
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+2,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

21% Possession 79%
2 Shots 21
2 Shots on target 10
0 Blocked shots 7
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 9
2 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 4
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cardiff 17. · Man City 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chelsea 5 5 0 0 +10 15
2 Liverpool 5 5 0 0 +9 15
3 Man City 5 4 1 0 +11 13
4 Watford 6 4 1 1 +5 13
5 Bournemouth 5 3 1 1 +3 10
6 Tottenham 5 3 0 2 +4 9
7 Arsenal 5 3 0 2 +1 9
8 Man United 5 3 0 2 +0 9
9 Wolves 5 2 2 1 +0 8
10 Everton 5 1 3 1 -1 6
11 Leicester 5 2 0 3 -1 6
12 Crystal Palace 5 2 0 3 -2 6
13 Southampton 5 1 2 2 +0 5
14 Brighton 5 1 2 2 -2 5
15 Fulham 6 1 2 3 -5 5
16 West Ham 5 1 0 4 -6 3
17 Cardiff 5 0 2 3 -6 2
18 Huddersfield 5 0 2 3 -9 2
19 Newcastle 5 0 1 4 -4 1
20 Burnley 5 0 1 4 -7 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cardiff Man City
32′
S. Agüero 0–1
Bernardo Silva
35′
Bernardo Silva 0–2
L. Sané
44′
İ. Gündoğan 0–3
R. Sterling
Joe Ralls 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–3
J. Richards 🔁
↦ L. Peltier
51′
60′
🟨 Fernandinho
61′
🔁 R. Mahrez
↦ S. Agüero
K. Zohorè 🔁
↦ D. Ward
63′
67′
R. Mahrez 0–4
İ. Gündoğan
69′
🔁 P. Foden
↦ İ. Gündoğan
74′
🔁 J. Stones
↦ Fernandinho
Josh Murphy 🔁
↦ J. Hoilett
75′
89′
R. Mahrez 0–5
Full-time 0–5

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-4-1-1
1 N. Etheridge G
2 L. Peltier D
5 B. Écuélé Manga D
4 S. Morrison D
18 G. Cunningham D
7 H. Arter M
14 B. Reid F
8 J. Ralls M
21 Víctor Camarasa M
33 J. Hoilett M
9 D. Ward F
Bench (7)
6 J. Richards
10 K. Zohorè
11 Josh Murphy
3 J. Bennett
13 C. Paterson
22 S. Bamba
28 B. Murphy

Coach: N. Warnock

Man City

4-3-3
31 Ederson Moraes G
30 N. Otamendi D
2 K. Walker D
14 A. Laporte D
25 Fernandinho M
18 F. Delph D
8 İ. Gündoğan M
20 Bernardo Silva M
10 S. Agüero F
7 R. Sterling F
19 L. Sané F
Bench (7)
26 R. Mahrez
47 P. Foden
5 J. Stones
4 V. Kompany
21 David Silva
33 Gabriel Jesus
49 A. Murić

Coach: Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Michael Oliver · 163 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.