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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Parma

U T T S

2–0

Full-time

Cagliari

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

28% Possession 72%

18 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 11

2 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 16. · Cagliari 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Sassuolo	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Spal	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+0	9
5	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+7	7
6	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
8	Lazio	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Roma	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Udinese	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Torino	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Cagliari	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	+1	4
14	Inter	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Chievo	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Bologna	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Fiorentina	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Spal	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Sampdoria	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+3	3
10	Milan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Roma	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Inter	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Frosinone	2	0	1	1	-5	1
20	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+4	3
3	Inter	2	1	0	1	+2	3
4	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Lazio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Napoli	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Torino	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
19	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.