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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Malheiro Pinto

Tondela

U T S T U

1–2

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

14%

43%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

1,9

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

10 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Vitoria Setubal 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	5	3	0	+9	18
2	Benfica	8	5	2	1	+8	17
3	Rio Ave	8	5	2	1	+5	17
4	Porto	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Santa Clara	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Sp Lisbon	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Guimaraes	8	3	2	3	+1	11
8	Belenenses	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Maritimo	7	3	1	3	-3	10
10	Portimonense	8	3	1	4	-4	10
11	Feirense	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
13	Boavista	7	2	1	4	-3	7
14	Chaves	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Moreirense	7	2	1	4	-8	7
16	Tondela	7	1	3	3	-1	6
17	Nacional	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Aves	8	1	1	6	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rio Ave	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	9
5	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	0	2	+2	6
10	Feirense	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Tondela	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Aves	4	1	1	2	+1	4
14	Chaves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Belenenses	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Boavista	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+4	8
2	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+4	7
3	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+3	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Guimaraes	4	2	0	2	+1	6
6	Belenenses	4	1	3	0	+1	6
7	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
8	Nacional	4	1	2	1	-1	5
9	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Sp Lisbon	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Portimonense	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-7	3
15	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-7	3
16	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Aves	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.