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Championship
Referee: Keith Hill
Nott'm Forest
U T T S T
3–1
Full-time
Reading
T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Reading
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
1,7
3,2
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,5
This season — Championship · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 33%
24%
41%
Points per game
1,0
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 35%
29%
41%
Both score Ø 56%
53%
59%
Average goals
1,8
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,5
Conceded
1,1
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

44% Possession 56%
12 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 7
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 9
1 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nott'm Forest 18. · Reading 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Hull 17 10 5 2 +18 35
2 Brighton 16 9 7 0 +9 34
3 Middlesbrough 17 10 3 4 +13 33
4 Derby 17 9 6 2 +13 33
5 Burnley 17 9 6 2 +9 33
6 Birmingham 17 8 4 5 +6 28
7 Ipswich 18 7 7 4 +3 28
8 Reading 17 7 6 4 +7 27
9 Sheffield Weds 16 7 5 4 +3 26
10 Cardiff 17 6 7 4 +3 25
11 Brentford 17 7 3 7 -1 24
12 Fulham 17 5 6 6 +1 21
13 Blackburn 17 4 8 5 +1 20
14 Wolves 17 5 5 7 -1 20
15 QPR 17 5 5 7 -3 20
16 Leeds 17 4 7 6 -4 19
17 Preston 17 3 8 6 -3 17
18 Nott'm Forest 17 4 5 8 -5 17
19 Bristol City 17 3 7 7 -9 16
20 Charlton 18 4 4 10 -14 16
21 Huddersfield 17 3 6 8 -9 15
22 Milton Keynes Dons 17 4 3 10 -9 15
23 Rotherham 17 3 3 11 -15 12
24 Bolton 17 1 8 8 -13 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nott'm Forest Reading
14′
M. Vydra 0–1
O. Norwood
1–1 C. O'Grady
Ryan Mendes
20′
2–1 Nélson Oliveira
Ryan Mendes
31′
Jack Hobbs 🟨
42′
Half-time 3–1
3–1 Nélson Oliveira
C. O'Grady
49′
54′
🟨 Michael Hector
Jack Hobbs 🟨
66′
Jack Hobbs 🟥
66′
K. Wilson 🔁
↦ Nélson Oliveira
69′
69′
🔁 P. Hurtado
↦ Orlando Sá
69′
🔁 O. John
↦ Lucas Piazon
M. Mancienne 🔁
↦ Ryan Mendes
79′
85′
🔁 R. Liburd
↦ P. McShane
86′
🟨 Danny Williams
89′
🟨 Ola John
L. Trotter 🔁
↦ C. OGrady
89′
David Vaughan 🟨
90′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Nott'm Forest

1 D. de Vries G
5 M. Mills D
25 J. Hobbs D
2 E. Lichaj D
31 Dani Pinillos D
24 D. Vaughan M
10 H. Lansbury M
38 B. Osborn M
29 C. O'Grady F
15 Ryan Mendes M
17 Nélson Oliveira F
Bench (7)
6 K. Wilson
4 M. Mancienne
18 L. Trotter
20 J. Williams
23 D. Blackstock
26 D. Evtimov
37 J. Grant

Reading

26 Ali Al Habsi G
3 A. Taylor D
5 P. McShane D
2 C. Gunter D
8 M. Hector D
23 D. Williams M
6 O. Norwood M
10 Orlando Sá F
22 N. Blackman F
7 M. Vydra M
17 Lucas Piazon F
Bench (7)
16 P. Hurtado
20 O. John
41 R. Liburd
1 J. Bond
11 J. Obita
15 A. Ferdinand
35 J. Cooper

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Keith Hill · 12 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
0,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.