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Championship
Referee: Tim Robinson
Cardiff
S U T S S
3–0
Full-time
Aston Villa
T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
0%
67%
Average goals
1,3
2,3
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,7
This season — Championship · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
1,0
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

34% Possession 66%
15 Shots 10
12 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 8
4 Corners 7
0 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cardiff 9. · Aston Villa 10. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bristol City 1 1 0 0 +2 3
2 QPR 1 1 0 0 +2 3
3 Leeds 1 1 0 0 +1 3
4 Sheffield United 1 1 0 0 +1 3
5 Wolves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Nott'm Forest 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Ipswich 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Preston 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Cardiff 1 1 0 0 +1 3
10 Aston Villa 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Hull 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Fulham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Norwich 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 Sunderland 1 0 1 0 +0 1
15 Derby 1 0 1 0 +0 1
16 Bolton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
17 Brentford 1 0 0 1 -1 0
18 Middlesbrough 1 0 0 1 -1 0
19 Millwall 1 0 0 1 -1 0
20 Birmingham 1 0 0 1 -1 0
21 Sheffield Weds 1 0 0 1 -1 0
22 Burton Albion 1 0 0 1 -1 0
23 Barnsley 1 0 0 1 -2 0
24 Reading 1 0 0 1 -2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cardiff Aston Villa
1–0 N. Mendez-Laing ⚽
J. Hoilett
21′
31′
🔁 A. Adomah
↦ Ahmed El Mohamady
Half-time 1–0
55′
🟨 Neil Taylor
58′
🔁 C. O'Hare
↦ H. Lansbury
2–0 J. Hoilett ⚽
K. Zohorè
60′
J. Richards 🔁
↦ J. Bennett
63′
3–0 N. Mendez-Laing ⚽
A. Gunnarsson
71′
77′
🔁 C. Hourihane
↦ J. Onomah
D. Ward 🔁
↦ N. Mendez-Laing
86′
M. Kennedy 🔁
↦ K. Zohorè
90′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-3-3
25 N. Etheridge G
2 L. Peltier D
14 S. Bamba D
4 S. Morrison D
3 J. Bennett D
17 A. Gunnarsson M
20 L. Damour M
19 N. Mendez-Laing F
8 J. Ralls M
33 J. Hoilett F
10 K. Zohorè F
Bench (7)
6 J. Richards
9 D. Ward
23 M. Kennedy
5 B. Écuélé Manga
7 L. Tomlin
15 G. Halford
28 B. Murphy

Coach: N. Warnock

Aston Villa

4-4-1-1
1 S. Johnstone G
26 J. Terry D
21 A. Hutton D
3 N. Taylor D
5 J. Chester D
6 G. Whelan M
27 Ahmed El Mohamady D
8 H. Lansbury M
11 G. Agbonlahor F
9 S. Hogan F
18 J. Onomah M
Bench (7)
37 A. Adomah
36 C. O'Hare
14 C. Hourihane
4 C. Samba
13 J. Steer
16 J. Bree
20 B. Bjarnason

Coach: S. Bruce

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
–
U3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
BLS nei ✓
–

Referee

Tim Robinson · 110 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.