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Championship
Referee: John Brooks
Middlesbrough
T S U U S
0–2
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
0%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,2
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
0,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,2
This season — Championship · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 41%
55%
27%
Points per game
2,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 37%
18%
55%
Both score Ø 46%
18%
73%
Average goals
1,6
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,4
Conceded
0,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%
17 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
11 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Middlesbrough 1. · Nott'm Forest 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Middlesbrough 11 6 4 1 +10 22
2 Sheffield United 11 7 1 3 +7 22
3 West Brom 11 6 3 2 +11 21
4 Leeds 11 5 5 1 +10 20
5 Brentford 12 4 6 2 +6 18
6 Norwich 11 5 3 3 +1 18
7 Derby 10 5 2 3 +5 17
8 Swansea 11 4 5 2 +4 17
9 Wigan 11 5 2 4 +2 17
10 Bristol City 11 4 4 3 +3 16
11 Nott'm Forest 11 3 7 1 +2 16
12 Sheffield Weds 11 4 4 3 +0 16
13 Aston Villa 11 3 6 2 +1 15
14 Blackburn 11 3 6 2 -2 15
15 Bolton 11 4 3 4 -4 15
16 Stoke 11 3 4 4 -2 13
17 QPR 11 4 1 6 -10 13
18 Birmingham 11 1 8 2 -1 11
19 Rotherham 11 3 2 6 -8 11
20 Reading 11 2 3 6 -2 9
21 Hull 11 2 2 7 -8 8
22 Millwall 11 1 4 6 -7 7
23 Ipswich 11 0 6 5 -8 6
24 Preston 11 1 3 7 -10 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Nott'm Forest
25′
🟨 Joe Lolley
37′
🔁 Tobias Figueiredo
↦ M. Dawson
Ryan Shotton 🟨
38′
Daniel Ayala 🟨
42′
Half-time 0–1
49′
J. Lolley 0–1
D. Murphy
54′
🟨 Jack Robinson
B. Assombalonga 🔁
↦ J. Hugill
60′
A. Clayton 🔁
↦ M. Bešić
61′
R. Gestede 🔁
↦ M. Braithwaite
61′
72′
🔁 L. Grabban
↦ D. Murphy
77′
L. Grabban 0–2
J. Lolley
80′
🟨 Jack Robinson
80′
🟥 Jack Robinson
83′
🔁 B. Osborn
↦ João Carvalho
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-3-3
23 D. Randolph G
5 R. Shotton D
3 G. Friend D
4 Daniel Ayala D
24 A. Flint D
19 S. Downing F
16 J. Howson M
37 M. Bešić M
22 G. Saville M
10 M. Braithwaite F
11 J. Hugill F
Bench (7)
9 B. Assombalonga
8 A. Clayton
39 R. Gestede
14 S. McQueen
6 D. Batth
1 D. Konstantopoulos
17 P. McNair

Coach: T. Pulis

Nott'm Forest

4-2-3-1
1 C. Pantilimon G
20 M. Dawson D
4 D. Fox D
18 J. Robinson D
27 T. Darikwa D
8 B. Watson M
6 J. Colback M
10 João Carvalho M
9 D. Murphy F
23 J. Lolley M
31 Gil Dias M
Bench (7)
3 Tobias Figueiredo
7 L. Grabban
11 B. Osborn
21 S. Janko
5 A. Guédioura
14 M. Cash
15 L. Steele

Coach: Karanka

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

John Brooks · 40 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.