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Serie A
Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Roma
T S S S S
0–1
Full-time
Napoli
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 92%
83%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
3,0
4,3
Scored
2,3
3,7
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+3,0
This season — Serie A · 6/7 matches
Win Ø 92%
83%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 45%
33%
57%
Average goals
3,0
4,3
Scored
2,3
3,6
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+2,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

44% Possession 56%
10 Shots 16
2 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Roma 5. · Napoli 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 7 7 0 0 +20 21
2 Juventus 8 6 1 1 +14 19
3 Lazio 8 6 1 1 +11 19
4 Inter 7 6 1 0 +11 19
5 Roma 6 5 0 1 +10 15
6 Torino 7 3 3 1 +1 12
7 Milan 7 4 0 3 +0 12
8 Chievo 7 3 2 2 +0 11
9 Sampdoria 6 3 2 1 +0 11
10 Bologna 7 3 2 2 -1 11
11 Atalanta 7 2 3 2 +2 9
12 Fiorentina 7 2 1 4 +0 7
13 Udinese 7 2 0 5 -1 6
14 Cagliari 7 2 0 5 -7 6
15 Spal 7 1 2 4 -6 5
16 Crotone 7 1 2 4 -8 5
17 Sassuolo 7 1 1 5 -11 4
18 Verona 7 0 3 4 -13 3
19 Genoa 7 0 2 5 -6 2
20 Benevento 7 0 0 7 -16 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Roma Napoli
20′
⚽ L. Insigne 0–1
43′
🟨 Jorginho
Half-time 0–1
Daniele De Rossi 🟨
53′
F. Fazio 🔁
↦ K. Manolas
59′
C. Ünder 🔁
↦ A. Florenzi
71′
71′
🔁 P. Zieliński
↦ M. Hamšík
73′
🔁 A. Diawara
↦ Jorginho
Gerson 🔁
↦ Lorenzo Pellegrini
78′
Federico Fazio 🟨
79′
82′
🔁 M. Rog
↦ José Callejón
90′
🟨 Faouzi Ghoulam
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Roma

4-2-3-1
1 Alisson G
11 A. Kolarov D
44 K. Manolas D
25 Bruno Peres D
5 Juan Jesus D
16 D. De Rossi M
4 R. Nainggolan M
24 A. Florenzi D
7 Lorenzo Pellegrini M
9 E. Džeko F
8 D. Perotti F
Bench (11)
20 F. Fazio
17 C. Ünder
30 Gerson
15 H. Moreno
18 B. Lobonț
21 M. Gonalons
22 N. Abdullahi
26 R. Karsdorp
28 Ł. Skorupski
48 M. Antonucci
55 Leandro Castán

Coach: E. Di Francesco

Napoli

4-3-3
25 Pepe Reina G
33 Albiol D
26 K. Koulibaly D
23 E. Hysaj D
31 F. Ghoulam D
17 M. Hamšík M
5 Allan M
8 Jorginho M
14 D. Mertens F
7 José Callejón F
24 L. Insigne F
Bench (12)
20 P. Zieliński
42 A. Diawara
30 M. Rog
1 Rafael
6 Mário Rui
11 C. Maggio
15 E. Giaccherini
18 Leandrinho
19 N. Maksimović
21 V. Chiricheș
22 L. Sepe
37 A. Ounas

Coach: M. Sarri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
–
U2,5 ✓
–
U3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
BLS nei ✓
–

Referee

Gianluca Rocchi · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,40 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.