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Eredivisie

Referee: Pol van Boekel

Willem II

U T T U T

2–3

Full-time

Excelsior

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Willem II Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 18%

27%

Points per game

0,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 46%

55%

36%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

62% Possession 38%

15 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Willem II 16. · Excelsior 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	11	9	1	1	+25	28
2	Feyenoord	11	8	1	2	+11	25
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	3	1	+16	24
4	Heracles	11	8	0	3	+10	24
5	Vitesse	11	6	2	3	+16	20
6	Nijmegen	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Zwolle	10	5	2	3	+1	17
8	Groningen	11	5	2	4	-2	17
9	Heerenveen	12	3	5	4	-2	14
10	Roda	12	3	5	4	-7	14
11	Utrecht	10	3	4	3	+1	13
12	AZ Alkmaar	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Den Haag	12	2	6	4	-5	12
14	Excelsior	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Twente	12	2	3	7	-13	9
16	Willem II	11	1	4	6	-6	7
17	Cambuur	11	0	6	5	-18	6
18	De Graafschap	11	0	2	9	-19	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Groningen	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+8	15
3	Heracles	6	5	0	1	+7	15
4	Ajax	5	4	0	1	+14	12
5	Vitesse	5	4	0	1	+12	12
6	Utrecht	6	3	3	0	+5	12
7	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	1	0	+5	10
8	Nijmegen	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Roda	7	2	4	1	+2	10
10	Zwolle	5	3	1	1	+1	10
11	Heerenveen	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Den Haag	6	1	4	1	+0	7
13	Excelsior	5	2	1	2	-1	7
14	AZ Alkmaar	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Twente	6	2	1	3	-6	7
16	Willem II	5	1	2	2	+0	5
17	Cambuur	6	0	3	3	-13	3
18	De Graafschap	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	PSV Eindhoven	7	4	2	1	+11	14
3	Feyenoord	6	3	1	2	+3	10
4	Heracles	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Vitesse	6	2	2	2	+4	8
6	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Nijmegen	6	2	1	3	-2	7
8	AZ Alkmaar	5	1	2	2	-2	5
9	Heerenveen	6	1	2	3	-3	5
10	Den Haag	6	1	2	3	-5	5
11	Excelsior	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Roda	5	1	1	3	-9	4
13	Cambuur	5	0	3	2	-5	3
14	Willem II	6	0	2	4	-6	2
15	Twente	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	De Graafschap	5	0	1	4	-9	1
18	Groningen	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.