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Ligue 1

Referee: K Abed

Toulouse

U T U U T

0–3

Full-time

Montpellier

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 40%

30%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

48% Possession 52%

15 Shots 22

4 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 9. · Montpellier 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	10	0	0	+31	30
2	Lille	10	7	1	2	+11	22
3	Lyon	11	6	2	3	+5	20
4	Montpellier	10	5	4	1	+7	19
5	Marseille	10	6	1	3	+6	19
6	St Etienne	11	4	5	2	-1	17
7	Strasbourg	10	4	3	3	+4	15
8	Bordeaux	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	-6	13
10	Angers	11	3	3	5	-2	12
11	Rennes	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Caen	10	2	5	3	-3	11
13	Nimes	11	2	5	4	-5	11
14	Reims	10	2	5	3	-5	11
15	Nice	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	Dijon	10	3	1	6	-5	10
17	Amiens	10	3	1	6	-7	10
18	Nantes	10	2	3	5	-4	9
19	Monaco	10	1	3	6	-5	6
20	Guingamp	10	1	3	6	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	6	0	0	+22	18
2	Lille	5	5	0	0	+11	15
3	Marseille	5	4	1	0	+11	13
4	Lyon	6	4	1	1	+7	13
5	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	St Etienne	5	3	2	0	+4	11
7	Strasbourg	5	3	1	1	+5	10
8	Bordeaux	5	3	1	1	+3	10
9	Amiens	5	3	0	2	+3	9
10	Toulouse	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Caen	5	1	4	0	+1	7
12	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Nimes	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Reims	5	1	3	1	+0	6
15	Nantes	5	1	2	2	+1	5
16	Angers	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Dijon	5	1	0	4	-6	3
18	Nice	5	1	0	4	-8	3
19	Monaco	5	0	2	3	-3	2
20	Guingamp	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Montpellier	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Nice	5	2	2	1	+1	8
4	Dijon	5	2	1	2	+1	7
5	Angers	5	2	1	2	+0	7
6	Lille	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Lyon	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Marseille	5	2	0	3	-5	6
9	St Etienne	6	1	3	2	-5	6
10	Strasbourg	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Rennes	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Nimes	6	1	2	3	-5	5
13	Reims	5	1	2	2	-5	5
14	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	Guingamp	6	1	2	3	-7	5
16	Monaco	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Bordeaux	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Caen	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Amiens	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.