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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Liverpool

U T S S T

1–4

Full-time

Man City

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

0,8

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 22/21 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

55%

29%

Both score Ø 46%

59%

33%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,9

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

8 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 4. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	21	14	5	2	+26	47
2	Man United	23	13	6	4	+19	45
3	Leicester	23	13	4	6	+14	43
4	Liverpool	22	11	7	4	+18	40
5	West Ham	23	11	6	6	+6	39
6	Everton	21	11	4	6	+6	37
7	Tottenham	22	10	6	6	+14	36
8	Chelsea	22	10	6	6	+13	36
9	Aston Villa	21	11	2	8	+12	35
10	Arsenal	23	9	4	10	+4	31
11	Leeds	21	9	2	10	-2	29
12	Southampton	22	8	5	9	-8	29
13	Crystal Palace	22	8	5	9	-10	29
14	Wolves	23	7	6	10	-8	27
15	Brighton	23	5	10	8	-5	25
16	Newcastle	23	7	4	12	-13	25
17	Burnley	22	6	5	11	-15	23
18	Fulham	22	2	9	11	-14	15
19	West Brom	23	2	6	15	-36	12
20	Sheffield United	22	3	2	17	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	2	1	+15	26
2	Liverpool	11	7	2	2	+11	23
3	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+10	19
4	Man United	12	5	3	4	+7	18
5	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+4	18
6	West Ham	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	Aston Villa	10	5	1	4	+5	16
8	Southampton	11	5	1	5	+2	16
9	Leicester	11	5	1	5	+1	16
10	Wolves	12	4	4	4	+0	16
11	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+1	15
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-4	15
13	Everton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Burnley	11	4	2	5	-4	14
15	Newcastle	12	4	2	6	-6	14
16	Leeds	10	3	2	5	-2	11
17	Brighton	11	1	6	4	-4	9
18	Sheffield United	11	2	1	8	-8	7
19	Fulham	12	1	4	7	-10	7
20	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-24	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	12	8	3	1	+13	27
2	Man United	11	8	3	0	+12	27
3	Everton	11	7	2	2	+5	23
4	Man City	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+4	21
6	Aston Villa	11	6	1	4	+7	19
7	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+10	18
8	Leeds	11	6	0	5	+0	18
9	Liverpool	11	4	5	2	+7	17
10	Chelsea	11	5	2	4	+3	17
11	Arsenal	12	5	1	6	+3	16
12	Brighton	12	4	4	4	-1	16
13	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	-6	14
14	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-10	13
15	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Wolves	11	3	2	6	-8	11
17	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-11	9
18	Fulham	10	1	5	4	-4	8
19	West Brom	12	1	3	8	-12	6
20	Sheffield United	11	1	1	9	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.